CVN 3.45% 15.0¢ carnarvon energy limited

To Hold or Fold, page-153

  1. 13,976 Posts.
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    Fortunately management have no need to listen to the bleaters here, or to closely watch the sp, they did their bit and prudently and conservatively covered themselves for this situation, raising a hefty sum at 39.

    Maybe if the sp was better they could be considering raising extra funds to go it alone on B-10, but it isn’t, so they are best just to hunker down and do all the low cost exploration stuff while STO get our crown jewel ready for the market to note - as KG said their is a lot of value to capture going to FID.

    I don’t think we need to worry too much about a low ball offer succeeding because of the low sp. It was as low a year ago, most shareholders won’t be under pressure as a result, most of the share register really won’t be changing their view for the sp being 30 today any more than they did when it was instantaneously 60. Takeovers don’t succeed or fail on the few % of liquid trading, they need to go deeper to the patient long term holders.

    Furthermore I don’t think the sp will lightly drop another 20% or so if we breach 30, that would be a further 30% cut to EV. Anything is possible but is it likely, and if so isn’t it likely to rebound quickly on bargain hunting? Hell, I could even be tempted somewhere in the mid - 20s and I have a truckload, about half my share portfolio.

    EL
 
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