AGO 0.00% 4.5¢ atlas iron limited

to match ari&fmg it should 40 cents. , page-16

  1. 169 Posts.
    Below are my thoughts about a ARI takeover. AGO has some similar characteristics

    Using the same assumptions AGO's...

    FY15 EV/EBIT = 5.4

    Reuters FY15 EPS = 10.49 (15 analysts average)


    *** ARI post ***

    Looking back at 2012 it's share price was cheap/wrong below 0.90 and ridiculous below 0.80 cents. Hence a takeover offer 10 days after it fell below 60 cents.

    Then, I would have accepted $1.50 and been happy given the risks and outlook. I suspect the company would have too.

    Everything is different now. YES I think it is very possible now. Much more compelling at $1.90+

    At Iron Ore 'average' of $US107 for FY15 and FY16 and no currency movement, ARI EPS = 22 cents. P/E = 4.5

    Reuters FY15 EPS = 19.6 (14 analysts average)

    So at $1.90 is only a P/E = 10

    EV/EBIT = 6.5 (market is at 10!) 50% higher
    This is the most applicable metric and more useful than P/E

    So a bargain at $1.90, is what I am saying.

    Book Value = $2.85 so if you take it over at $1.90 you instantly make an accounting profit of 50% on the transaction.

    The currency is 10% lower now than Sept 2012 which makes it 10% more attractive!

    Iron ore Spot has only ever traded for 14 days now since spot started below $US100.
 
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