to play the fiddle with the mel or the bow?

This is Mr Lincoln Augustus, first second cousin of Holymagiman.

We are just in from a night of fishing, it is coming on to 8 am and soon be time for breakfast. But we are not having any fish this morning as the fishing was not good.

That is not to say that there were no fish in the sea at the spot we were fishing, and it is not to say that we were not catching those fish.

We were catching those fish all right, easy as pie, big ones, small ones and all sorts of ones. And that is the problem, for all these fish had an ethereal glow as we pulled them in, and we started to feel strange as theses fish followed our every movement with their three beady eyes, and some even started walking after us on their newly grown legs.

So we threw them all back in, for there is an old family belief that it is most not blessed to be eating three eyed creatures that we had met in the dark.

So now we are just sitting around, and thinking about Eastern Star and Bow and Metgasco, and wondering which is what right now.

We are glad that we took that lift down in the Eastern Star Towers, and we are wondering who will be the last out who will be switching off the lights. The warnings were there for those who cared to see but sometimes one gets blinded by false words and deafened by what one fails to see.

Anyway that is all history now, possibly to be written in Chapter 3 of some elementary history book that some unfortunate children of the future will have to read to pass their Standard 1 Entrance Exams.

So now we have to compare Bow and Metgasco, and they make interesting comparisons indeed.

PRICE:

The price of BOW is about 4 times as much as MEL. That is a fact.

RESERVES:

BOW has 2480 PJ of 3P reserves
MEL has 2.7 PJ of 1P reserves, 428PJ of 2P reserves and 2542 PJ of 3P reserves

PIPELINES:

BOW needs 250 km of pipeline to get to Gladstone
MEL needs 110 km of pipeline to link up to pipeline network to Gladstone

PILOT WELL FLOWS

BOW stated today in its report, "The delivery of successful pilot wells is an important element for upgrade from 3P to 2P gas reserves."

So we thought that we would compare flow rates in both their wells.

BOW WELLS:

BWP 39 has a flow rate of 100,000 scfd
BWP 26 has a flow rate of 78,000 scfd
BWP 34 has a flow rate of 98,000 scfd.

METGASCO WELLS

HARRIER P01

"Metgasco advises that gas production from the Harrier P01 CSG pilot well has now achieved a rate of 230,000 scfd which is expected to increase significantly once the well is fully dewatered. This early 230,000 scfd gas production rate exceeds the peak gas production rate from the Company?s lead pilot well, Corella P11 and provides further evidence that Metgasco?s improvements in CSG well design and approach to well completion have resulted in improved field productivity.

"The Harrier P01 well is still dewatering and the bottom hole pressure has been drawn down by approximately one third of its initial reservoir pressure. Gas production rates are expected to increase from 230,000 scfd as dewatering continues and bottom hole pressure is reduced. Metgasco has been drawing down the bottom hole pressure slowly to encourage maximum ultimate recovery. The production rates to date from Harrier P01 are very encouraging and exceed our reservoir model predictions for gas production at this stage of the dewatering process from a well of this type and inseam length."

CORELLA P11

"Metgasco?s lead CSG production well, Corella P11 has been producing gas for more than three years. The peak gas production rate has continued to climb steadily over this period to exceed 210,000 scfd. The production data from this well provides a very good baseline for our reservoir modelling which informs the Company?s production forecasts for similar wells in the same CSG reservoir. The Corella P11 well is currently being brought back on line after a work over to clean out coal fines from the wellbore. Low water production rates have continued through the period."

CORELLA P18

"The Corella P18 pilot well is also performing above expectations. Due to the short in seam length in Corella P18, this well was expected to produce at around 70,000 scfd but has already produced at rates of more than 100,000 scfd. When full pressure drawdown is achieved and the gas production rate builds up these pilot wells are expected to produce at rates well above expectations and the assumptions in our economics models."

So, with the impressive flows from Harrier P01 at only the one third dewatering point, and with the expectations of significant increase in flow rates in all three wells, we confidently expect an increase in the 3P reserves sooner rather than later.

MEETGASCO'S CONVENTIONAL PLAY

The Greater McKeller structure appears, in Page 11 of the Good oil Presentation to be at least 25 to 30 times as big as the original Kingfisher, and that is massive. It will be drilled in mid 2012, after all formal groundwork is completed.

The P50 of the Greater McKeller structure is 1312 BCF, which translates to 1384 PJ of conventional gas.

We stated in a couple of our posts some time ago that we thought that Kingfisher could possibly have flowed about 13,000,000 scfd, based on some very dodgy assumptions on Alvin the Idiot's part and also on the way Missy Mille Parkins walked past us that night. So, maybe we were right, and maybe we were wrong, we do not know, but the thought of how Miss Mille Parkins walks breaks us into a terribly cold sweat.

So it is our belief that the Board is being very meticulous in their planning, and we feel that they are carefully working towards ensuring that the next conventional well is nothing short of perfect. We have no problems with that, and we have confidently raised our shareholding to above 100 shares. So now we wait, smoking the smoke and drinking the Red Stripes and enjoying the Jamaican sun.

So it is a most interesting quandary in deciding when to switch from one to the other between BOW and Metgasco, for both have some very serious merits.

However it is well known that things sometimes happen so unexpectedly that we didn't expect them to happen at all, and when that happens, all we can do is sit back and reflect on the reflections, but that is the way life goes, and as most of us are not soothsayers, the only thing we can really sit back to now is breakfast, which we see coming.

So we leave you with the blessing of the Lord on this fine Wednesday morning in Jamaica.
MLA