The below is my train of thought, and should not be considered by anyone for their own investment or financial purposes.
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"To sell or not to sell, that is the question."
Why? - 3 simple letters.
ROI -> Return On Investment
ROI is why I'm here, its why your here, its why thousands of people read these posts, and its why anyone anywhere invests anything. If ROI isn't significantly positive, its a failed investment, - and right now I'm questioning if my OBJ LT investment is on the path to being a failed one, and before you jump on either ramp, hear me out as to why Im worried.
So why would a LT like me, consider selling out in the ST? whats the logic?
Well, it not just the obvious the 4c, which has repeated the same 10 year trend Ive watched for too long now. That trend is the "its coming, just wait, next year is the near!", repeated over and over.... year after year ....... over and over .... year after year ...... and over and over again .... year after year again.....
More importantly, lets use an example of the basic mathematics that have now made OBJ very unattractive for me, and likely many others, assuming the status quo remains for more years.
I'll use arbitrary figures of a held parcel, so its simple and easy to work with.(Not my investment amounts)
lets say a given investor:
-owns 1,000,000 OBJ shares,
-bought at 5 cents,
-bought 5 years ago,
-for a $50,000 outlay.(Excluding surplus costs).
If they sold that parcel yesterday at 7.2 cents, its now worth $72,000(before taxes), and their ROI/Profit is $22,000 (72k - 50k outlay).... Fantastic huh?
..... well no.... not at all, because if its taken a 5 year period to achieve that in a lump sum, your ROI is actually quite poor. Why ? because $22,000 earned over a 5 year period, for out initial outlay of $50k, breaks down to $4,400 a year. If we consider CPI also, then you have an equivalent, locked up, non-compounding, diminishing annual return at 8.8%((4.4k/50k) in a volatile stock.... but still, you might again be asking..."whats wrong with that?"
Well, at 8.8% annually - ROI is simply NOT good enough - why? Because I have many other diversified investments which have consistently provided higher yields, between 10 and 15%, - investments which are compounding, are adjusted for inflation and are more stable.... So that 50k outlay could have generated the investor 5k annually in the first year alone, compounding and adjusting to produce well over 25k in the same time fame.
Now, add zero's to the end of these examples to make it a $1mill investment by a serious backer, where its 220k v 250k in ROI, and you see why OBJ isnt where big money is flowing into. Its outclassed in investment options right now.... add in the volatility risk for them with todays dumps, look at the massive loss, and you see the problem why money is getting the hell OUT.
So then why would I hang on to OBJ, or invest all all if i can do better elsewhere?
Another single word again - Potential... IF OBJ could be sold at 10c, then its ROI/Profit is suddenly competitive,... at 15, 20c, its outstanding.... at 35c+ is astonishingly phenomenal - and 35c is not unreasonable if OBJ were managed more effectively. It has plenty of reasons why it should be much higher, and not at the turd levels of today.
But that's what it SHOULD or COULD be, not what it is now. And here lies my problem; I'm not 5 years into OBJ, I'm way beyond that, and because of the all-talk and no-measurable-action of OBJ to date, my ROI is horribly lower than the alternatives which would have yielded better in the time-frame. And no surprise, once again I seem to have to wait and wait, and wait some more for OBJ, with the prospect of those 15c+ levels now seeming way, way off
So here lies the problem: ... choice
Do I wait and hope the OBJ prophecy comes true?
We all know that prophecy - the one where OBJ products are across the world in global superstores,where revenues flow in like Niagra on Viagra, and the SP rockets to the stars (OK that's a bit much), but certainly the one where a major re-rate occurs.
You cant deny the obvious signs that the re-rate will most likely happen. It truly has real and good reasons to do so, OBJ has set itself very well to really achieve something special .... But when? 1 month, 6 months? 6 years, 15 years?.... how much do i have to watch my money loose out to better opportunities in that time? My ROI is rotting under the delay, and I have now choice but to stop that rot.
So now I'm weighing up taking my money out, on the assumption OBJ isn't re-rating anytime soon, that more years of delay will destroy my ROI, and that the gains I can achieve in other investments will out match or even exceed OBJ's potential return in any reasonable time-frame - since OBJ is still trying to crack a problematic coconut, and by its track record, may yet still be years away from its prophetic destiny.
....Historically OBJ is full of promises. Good ones, ones i like very much, Excellent ones, credible ones, ones which other companies would pay to even have a rumor of, ... the recent license for example was genuinely very very good ....but promises don't provide measurable returns, and it also means that unfortunately for those LT investors (already up to many years invested), the % returns are poor, and dropping by the day. Each of us have critical financial points in OBJ, and mine is just about there, as I suspect it is for others.
This means logically & mathematically, many LT's will have to get out if nothing changes ST. If the re-rate is multiple years away, as I now worry, my money is simple far better off elsewhere. This is why i suspect no serious investment is NOT buying into OBJ, and why roadshows are a waste of time for them at this point. There is nothing concrete to provide reasonable time forecasts on WHEN OBJ will provide worthwhile ROI.
Example - If I'm a major investor at a roadshow: OBJ can satisfy me with the tech, it can satisfy me with the partners, it can satisfy me with the program's, products and all manner of risk reduction, its genuinely impressive, which is why P&G are so involved...... But when I ask , "When will i see returns" and the answer is a "errrrr,ummmm,ahhhh", well, my money is going elsewhere untill I get an answer.
In 3 months we should know 100% if yet another "winter is coming" for the next 5 seasons of OBJ. For me, if it spikes to something reasonable anytime before, I'll seriously consider taking the opportunity to get out, preserve my ROI %, and put it to more productive and efficient use elsewhere. I genuinely would like to stay in OBJ, being out has it own risks, that potential is very real..... but if nothing changes ST to begin the re-rate, and it continues its current path for more years, then i cant see how staying in OBJ would be a sensible option - its not sensible for me, not sensible for other LT's, and especially not for big investors, "there's no money in it" as they say.
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The above is my train of thought, and should not be considered by anyone for their own investment or financial purposes.
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