to sell or to hold, page-23

Since AGO is a pure IO play and since its customers are exclusively Chinese,
its long term prospects are tied to China's long term IO demand prospects.
IMO whether China's GDP grows at 8% or 6% doesn't matter so much because
even the pessimistic 6% growth is from today's high base.

for example a 10% growth on 2008 Chinese usage is much smaller then
a 6% lift on today's usage. China's present use of IO is its historically highest.

Manouvering by Chinese buyers prior to last year's Chinese regime change
saw the price drop under $90 but to achieve this Chinese stockpiles were depleted.
Today's price is about $135/ton which , IMO , should be par for the year.
When taxi drivers talk of sub $100 prices for IO it is usually time to buy.

Small producers like AGO have to simply cut costs and bank the lollies
while the going is good because Chinese price manipulation is short term
and the fundamentals of supply/demand and price will, IMO, sort itself
over the longer term. The price on IO, IMO, will average $130/ton over the
12 month period.
Cheers
Moorookamick
PS: Is AGO on a 3 month contract like the biggies or is it on an trailing 1 month contract like MGX? MM.