Entropy Lord : Long time no read. Im back from a self imposed...

Entropy Lord : Long time no read. Im back from a self imposed exile from HC for last couple of years. I do remember you from way back in the early days of HC.

re CUE and the Artemis and Catarina debate. I will add my two cents worth,(for what its worth). Some of the things I mention are from information i have picked up, some I have heard from the proverbial horses mouth, some is old hat.

Woodsides buy in is for feedstock for Pluto. Fact.

The NW shelf is going through a bit of a transition / consolidation phase. It has to recognised that Wa and fed govt are not going grant willy nilly more greenfield LNG plant approvals. In other words 'might is right' is the game plan, and the bigger, more robust you are, the more secure is your future. There are multiple issues at play here - the most critical from the downstream perpsective is to be able to keep a workforce rolling over from project to project. Hence the push to firm up multiple future trains for Pluto , lest the lads Chevron scoop them all up. Chevron is actively and openly positioning itself as the 'LNG Hub concept' leaders and are trying to tie in more and more fields to the Wheatstone hub. The bigger your hub, the bigger the clout. Do not underestimate the issue of water rights allocation to each of these projects. Again the more each of these player has behind them the more they will get.

Neither Artemis nor Catarina will generate there own LNG plant, irrespective of size or economics. They will tie back to existing hubs. It just absurb to keep building new plants - and the industry leaders recognise this.

Artemis to me looks like the value kicker to CUE based on its relative ease to monetise compared to Catarina (assuming a succesful campaign). I am disapointed though at Petrobras being the farm in partner. They are a muddled bunch and this project would rate less than a hair on a pimple on its sizable arse. Petrobras lack the will, the time or expertise to develope there own thing even if the govt is willing to let another plant be built. so they will have to tie in with someone else. My thoughts are with those who have to negotiate with them. It will be a long summer (or three).

Woodside is the perfect partner for Catarina and they have the intellectual muscle to make this work. It will be challenging and expensive. Catarina has to be a sizable find to be worth much to CUE. It lies over the escarpment. I have seen sub sea surveys of Canarvan Basin escarpment. There are sections that present fantastic engineering challenges with building sized boulders scattered at the base with extensive stippeling. This is slightly frontier work and Chevron (wheatstone extension #II) or Exxon will lead the way on the challenges of pipeline routes. albeit further south than 389.

Now to make it interesting. FLNG may in fact be an answer. Eye watering expensive...but once shell cracks the nut prices will fall. And guess what....no shore based construction IR and EIS issues. The Aust govt/woodside think they are so clever doing FLNG on sunrise to dodge an onshore plant at ET. Once this genie is out of the bottle though - will be hard for them to decline the same request for NW shelf. This then effectively represents the 'offshoring'of LNG plant construction to Korea/China/Singapore. So much for the jobs boom in WA! The dunderheads at the NWU, MUA, CFMEU will eventually see the writing on the wall and jump into bed with Ramos Horta to ditch FLNG at sunrise and do the impossible pipeline route to ET. An astute polition might see an opportunity here to 'support' the onshore LNG plant plan in ET, in exchange for a promise to look after some pesky boat people. Everyone is happy except Don Voelte. You heard it hear first:)

I will leave for the Geologists to duke it out over what is underneath 360 and 389. One or the other will come up trumps so CUE is a nice little earner. good luck to holders.