Hi Nickoo,You and I have clashed many times, but in the process...

Hi Nickoo,

You and I have clashed many times, but in the process of doing so, we have presented more detailed arguments to support a rounded out view.

In doing so, I have not disagreed with your general view (ie: down, or rocky turbulence ahead). I have, however, disagreed with the nature or severity of the declines to which you have penned your views.

I have also sought to point out some of the obvious political, economic and social consequences that would follow from the realisation of your views being achieved.

I do not believe in predictability and, hence, also subscribe to the chaos theory commented upon earlier by Alpha.

I also come from a corporate background, and have extensive training in several professions (among them legal, accounting and economics).

Those who know me know what I do, and what I am involved in on a daily basis. I am not a broker, but I work with, and meet, brokers on a daily basis. The decisions that I am involved in daily would leave you and most of your colleagues quite numb. That is why I have kept arguing the point regarding the component nature of the crises that we face today being composed of several elements including Government, management, environment, and conditions.

Do not, therefore, under-estimate the extent to which management is lacking in either the talents, skills, depth of knowledge or understanding to deal with the issues that we are facing (ie: particularly on the sales and marketing side). Also, do not under-estimate the extent to which Government is caught in the same mind-trap (ie: naivety and a failure to manage out complex associtions, relationships, shifting coalitions, changing conditions, etc).

As for business and capitulation in the marketplace, why is it that so many sources of funds out there (and I am not talking about banks here) that have the funds /resources available with which to buy, but are waiting to buy in at lower and lower price multiples than before? This is all a waiting game. It is also a game of chance, and a matter of timing. It is also why tomorrow I will be supporting several acquisitions being made. Mind you of course, that will be in the millions, and will not involve any publicly listed companies.

In other words, the more that people talk of failure out there, the more that bargains are there to be had, and almost none of them are in reach of the ordinary punter. Why? Because they will be taken out first by the corporate and institutional investment environment.