Work in medical industry and understand clinical papers. Got interested in the govt and media handling of tobacco kills and looked into it... in detail including phone conversation with the PhD from the US National Institute of Health (largest health review centre in the world) who wrote a very comprehensive study on incidence of cancer amongst smokers from a meta analysis of the major epidemiology studies conducted at the time, think it was early last decade. At work now and will have chap's name at home if anyone wishes me to provide the study reference.
Anyway, two highlights:
o 88% of cigarette smokers do not get lung cancer o Of the 12% that do, 90% achieve 40 pack years, i.e. a pack a day for 40 years.
Some observations:
1. Effect of cigarettes on lung cancer is dose related, which should not surprise and like all diseases cancer is multi factorial - genes, diet and lifestyle. Google the study done between US and Japanese unis showing Japanese heavy smokers have almost half the incidence of lung cancer than US counterparts. 2. Smoking stinks (for some people much more than others) and courtesy is a different topic. Interesting how it varies from society to society.
So while it makes sense to ensure programs are in place to reduce numbers of smokers, pls be mindful the messaging can be very misleading. Courtesy aside, people with little family history of cancer might smoke casually for a lifetime with little danger of contracting cancer. We all know heavy smokers who have died from smoking as well as heavy smokers who are still alive or lived well into their 80s. Not many light smokers at all fall off the perch from lung cancer. And the research supports that.
A person who has smoked 5 cigarettes a day for 30 years and aged 55 has a 0.2% chance of getting lung cancer in their remaining years, compared to 0.1% for a non smoker. It was that statistic which led me to ring the study author to confirm and I have since seen on anti smoking internet "assess your risk" table.
Pls google search if this conflicts with your understanding. The data reinforces how much spin we have in every day language and how conventional wisdom can be engineered. Sad and very concerning for many different areas of life.
