PLS 0.62% $3.20 pilbara minerals limited

Q: Lithium prices have boomed in recent years, can they hold at...

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    Q: Lithium prices have boomed in recent years, can they hold at these levels or will supply from new mines drag the price lower in the next three years? Wilkins: Lithium prices have already fallen 10 per cent this year despite the strong start to the year of [electric vehicle] sales in China, so the new supply, or threat of new supply, is already having an impact in the market. We see supply of lithium outstripping our strong demand growth forecasts over the next few years to drive prices lower, although the market comes back into balance in [about] 2025 as demand for [electric vehicles] from Europe, US and the [rest of the world] accelerates to match the government policy driven demand we are seeing over the near term from China. Shaw: Lithium demand growth is strongest for the highest-quality battery-grade products as the electric vehicle and stationary grid battery storage thematic really gets going. The outlook suggests very strong demand growth from these drivers well into the future. The challenge for industry is to supply enough high-quality battery-grade product to meet this demand. . While there is a very large amount of new supply potentially commissioning in coming years, we remain focused on construction delays, ramp up delays and recovery rate challenges throughout the chain. If the industry performs as it has done in the past, we believe that battery-grade lithium prices could well remain supported around current levels for another year or two at least. Dhar: Over the next three years, lithium markets do face surplus risks if all new supply comes online as expected. In fact, on current projections, a physical lithium deficit is only expected later next decade. These oversupply concerns have slowed the ascent of lithium prices since August 2017. It is worth noting, though, that prices are yet to correct lower on surplus forecasts. We think it is likely that lithium prices will slide lower once the newly proposed supply reaches the production stage. Just an excerpt but the same non sense from analysts.
    Last edited by bobsacramento: 22/05/18
 
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