Today, the beginning of ‘the uptrend’, page-8

First see my post 34239912 for general comments on people saying stock is going to make major moves with absolutely no reasons given.
See next to last comment for why I think Lynas is headed up and will continue for at least a week or two. 2.35 or even 2.40 in next week or two maybe. 2.55 I doubt it.

I am very willing to put forth estimates. It is only by putting out estimates and then being wrong do I get to improve my ideas.
Total Production 4.0 to 4.3 KT
NdPr Production 1.2 to 1.4 KT.
ASP down a little but less than Au$1.00. This is a hard one in Q3 they shipped 4375 tons only made 4110 T a delta of 275 T. If that was La and Ce from inventory and they do not pull much La and Ce from inventory this Q then ASP could actually increase this Q. I am assuming that ratio of NdPr to everything else stays same in which case lower NdPr prices will lower ASP. Rember NdPr $ high was in March.

EPS 0.05 to 0.07 Primary reason is increase in number of shares.
EPS fully diluted. 0.03 to 0.06
As an investor I like to be surprised to the high side. If I am wrong it will most likely be because I am low. Wrong is wrong not arguing that point just think it is useful for you to know my bias.

I do not think inspections hurt Q3 results much. AL told us in Q2 CC that they now have replacement parts for the Items that take high inspection time. They replaced key components and do inspections off line, so as not to impact production. The kilns have a long inspection period. Two of 4 had to be inspected in Q3. Lynas has been running on two kilns and one in warm standby and one in cold standby. So no impact there. Inspections in Q3 did hit production. Because of comments by AL in different CCs I think impact was small.


I feel that the biggest risk to Lynas is not Lynas performance or current supply demand ratios for NdPR. It is a major correction or recession in world stock markets. Lynas is a growth stock with poor debt equity ratios, Low cash / Sh. Low EPS (high PE). Stock like this are always hit far worse than market as whole. Take recent slide June 14 Lynas $2.55 S&P $2784. Now the S&P slid and I think that was some of Lynas’s problem on 6 /27 S&P at 2700 Lynas at 2335 so during that period S& P slide 3 % Lynas 8 %. S&P then started to recover Lynas continued down S& P about even today. Lynas is down 16% at $2.16. This will be compounded if there is a broad based slow down in WW production that causes REE prices to fall. I am not saying this will happen to Lynas. I use to be a very high risk investor. I semi retired 13 years ago. Many times I saw growth stocks get hit far worse and stay down longer in economic down turns. Current trade policies by US government, in my opinion, are a high risk item associated with Lynas. In the last week all indexes have rallied strongly It looks like Lynas is starting to follow. So the next week or two should be very good for Lynas. NdPr prices falling added to the fall.

For me Lynas buy sell decisions will be based on NdPr prices and on the world economy in general. Size of change of either will determine which is more important. I will not hold any stock like Lynas during even a strong threat of an economic down turn. Right now Lynas is about 5% of my holdings and I wonder if that is too high. Remember if a stock goes down 50% it has to go up 100% to break even. It took some big loses in a few companies that were good companies during economic downturns to fully appreciate what that means.
Hopefully the recent movement between EU and US on car tariffs will continue and this whole mess will go way.