today vs plan

Thought it might be worth cross checking today against plan

1. Drilling dates

Well 1 #6 -

Drill November - Met
Fraccing - December - Met
Production - January - Not mer, now Feb

Well 2 #8

Drill December - Met
Fraccing Dec - Not Met Now Jan
Production Feb - Instead of Jan

Wells 3 & 4

Drilled Dec, and Fraccing to commencxe in Jan - MET

Well 5 - Horizontal

Drill Jan - Mot Met


The way I read today, is that #6 & #8 are behind by a couple of weeks not months

Production in Jan never meant January 1, it meant during January - Production looks to be by month end for #6, and during Feb for #8

Wells 3 & 4 are running to original plan at this poinmt. Some good weather should see them on plan right through

As for the first horizontal, its a Genuine month behind shedule, but I note the end comment -

"We are currently reviewing the possibility of utilizing the new “sleeve” technology for fracture
stimulation. The new technology significantly reduces the time sequences between each frac stage.
With up to 30 stages in a horizontal well, this new equipment can make a significant difference in
costs and eventual payouts.
For further"

This new sleeve tech has the capacity to speed up the horizontal plays. This is our main income increase, so any chance to bring forward these results is welcome.

In other words, if it starts a month behind, we may pick this up, and beter production outputs, by using the right approach


Summary

Well 1 = A couple of weeks behind but due for production Early Feb

Well 2 = Same again . Couple of weeks down, but due for production in Feb

Wells 3 & 4 - On target

Well 5 Horizontal - 1 month down, but new technology will speed up result with higher efficiency

Nice surprise -

Gas is a premium premium product. Rather than the usual $3-4 per MCF, we will get $7 or around $800k pa per well

Typical wells in Permian flow at 136 BOPD per day

#6 was 379
#8 is 109 and increasing. Tells me it will probably hit mean of 136 . Additionally the gas was flowing faster that #6 so may well produce all up pretty well


Overall summary

We had a huge risk of "sell the news" today

Yes it did happen, but we ended up at our opening price.

This is with an SPP at 1.7c hanging over our heads

Today shows me the market has accepted the announcement, but looks forward to better progress as the weather eases

A few oppy holders panicked and bailed due to the delays. IMO it is tight, but not "months" as some have stated

Lets hope the announcements are far more regular from this point.