Last quarter their average realised coal price was $226, if we assume its the same untill end of CY2023 and assume that they meet their production guidance between 31-36 million tonnes for CY2023, then we would be looking at a revenue $3.751B - 4.882B for second half of 2023. Assuming a NPAT margin of 20% (being conservative), then that is $0.75B - 0.976B in cash for second half of CY2023. If they choose to return half of that back to shareholder then thats a yeild of 5.61%-7.1% at $5.06 share price.
A return of 5%-7% for half a year isnt that high, especially given that yancoal does not have a whole lot of growth and if it were to then it would be using up the cash and not returning it to shareholders. Seems like it is priced pretty fairly at current share price.
Am I missing something?
today, page-62
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