From the time of your post I realize The stock was even or up a couple of cents when you posted. Rounding, two day volume was 44M price drop 9,47 shares volume for 3 days of run up was 24 M SH price increase 0.19. Pretty sure this was biggest move in either direction, both volume and price. I really expected stock to bounce up last night $0.05 to 0.15 on good volume.
I will admit that I thought Licensing was a non-issue, and you thought it was important, you were right again. It just does not make sense to me because of the magnitude. I thought about buying but did not I am not ready to change my strategy on all stocks, I never do well when I make exceptions. I am very tempted.
I believe in either the Q4 or AR CC, AL said they need the license changes to go to 600T total Nd&PR. That they could only go to about 550 without an extension. If anyone has this written down I would appreciate the correct numbers. (if it is 525 or 575 it does not change much) AL also said if they could adjust the ratio of separated Nd & Pr to NDPR to meet demand. I just feel that something else is going on, no way even if the license is delayed for a year will ~50 T have that big of an impact on the P&L! 50 T times US $40, todays price for NDPR, is AU$2.7M in revenue, Even a price of US$ 50 is only AU$ 3.3M of revenue. Don’t want to start the discussion on what that would be in profits but way under $1.M It is not that major.
Maybe I am short sighted because I never saw this as a problem. In the next few years, without codicil they do have a long term storage problem. I am in US EDT time zone The first thing I did when I woke up, before I even looked at LYC chart, was check SMM and BAIIF for a price change. There was NO CHANGE for ANY REO product. I firmly believe many people, who are actively buying and selling REO, are aware of what prices are going to do a few days before they are posted. I was expecting at least a 10RMB drop in NdPr. That would explain some of the very strong sells.
I believe the WW economy will cause a drop in NdPr prices and that it is possible it could be severe enough to have a sub $1.00 price by the time Q2 Report comes out. I also know predicting WW events is very hard and the chance I may be wrong is large. Even a 10 to 15 RMB price rise would put the stock well over $2.00 with or without the last 50T. They are very near the point between red and black profits. Even small changes to price will have a dramatic impact on P&L.
Goofy do you, or anybody else, have any explanation for the drop? Even if 20 cents of drop is emotion and panic it still does not make sense. Price changes this large with this much volume decrease the probability, not eliminate it, that it is just over reaction. The market does do stange things sometimes.
A confused CJ
LYC Price at posting:
$1.63 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)