You have to do what you think is right. I will readily admit I was very tempted to buy a few weeks ago at $1.6x. I was afraid of Missing Out I had order entered and only had to hit return to buy. Experience has taught me that FMO is never a good reason to buy or sell. Sometimes it works well, certainly would have this time for a very nice gain, but most of time it doesn't. So I ignore share price. I watch Lynas carefully particular. Cash and Earnings. These everyone can see and when you see these things, you will be a little late. So I calculate difference between COP and sales price. External REO prices are high on my watch list. A change in these can also be seen by many, so I watch events in what I feel are the major end users of the four REO products Lynas sells especially Nd. I personally think Lynas goes lower before higher. This has absolutely nothing to do with Lynas's execution. It has to do with WW events beyond their control. Takes a little more work than SP but rewards should be better.
I personally believe that Lynas SP is ideally situated to really explode to upside once conditions are correct. That a SP of $5.00 may be in the more distant future. It will take different things external to Lynas to line up, this is what will cause delay in reaching $5.00. Once these line up we will reach $5.00 fairly quickly. The time to reach $10.00 and higher after that will be very quick. I cannot say if this is 3 months or 3 years away but I think I know what to look for and adjust what I am watching continuously as things change.
The auto industry is a key industry. Not only are the number of magnets growing in every ICE vehicle but there are catalytic converters and polishing compounds using REO. Hybrids use lots of Magnetic material, their sales do track the overall auto industry. Tools and home appliances also use magnetic material, sales of these also change with economy. Every sound speaker has perm magnets in it, sales of these are economy dependent. Many cars have 4, 12 and more speakers in their sound system, could cars be the biggest users of PM sound devices by weight volume? I replace my cars faster than my home stereo. YOY car sales were down 3 months in a row. October was up 0.1% we will have to watch to see if this is a turning point or buying ahead of cars that have parts in them effected by Trumps tariffs. Any news coming out of the G20 meeting, from meeting between Xi and Trump could also cause a major shift in direction. Much of this slowdown is caused by higher interest rates in US, the fed did not raise rates in last meeting what they do in December meeting will have a large impact, Plus or Minus. The 26th to 30th of November will be a very exciting time for Lynas with Malaysia, G20, Lynas AM. US Fed and worldwide car sales for November soon after in early Dec. Also during this time will be hit with lots of updates on XMAS sales. Some will be positive, some neutral, some negative it will be interesting. Will I watch the SP? Yes, I cannot stop, it is low on my list of priorities to decide when to buy back all of the shares I sold last summer and many more.
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