Today's chart & trading, page-1919

Patto's recent analysis puts the incentive price for ARU & PEK at $75kg NdPr, UBS puts the "barrier to entry" at $60kg. These projects are forecasting +$80kg (and some really stupid Roskills numbers) for a decent ROE.

All will have ~5yr lead times to any significant revenues, to attract non Chinese capital (there will be no cohabitation IMO) they will need to demonstrate largely non Chinese customers and sustained NdPr +$60kg.

With the proven IP (and a LOT more about to be demonstrated), firm grip on the ROW customer base, and a river of cash off +$60kg NdPr, would it not be logical to assume Lynas could act far faster than any greenfield?

Resource hardly an issue when you look at mkt caps and third best NdPr resource selling for $20M, and squeezed by monopoly concentrate customer paying "cabbage" prices.

Simple fact is, by far the major mkt, and it will remain so, has way overbuilt separation and downstream capacity, false economy to duplicate that capacity unless you have external mkts at scale.

NdFeB is 85% China & 15% Japan with absolutely nothing of consequence current or forecast elsewhere.

Anyone seen a non Chinese business plan elsewhere like this from exactly a decade ago: