"Lynas SP is controlled by REE prices. China controls REE prices. That does not mean there is not a great potential for Lynas. It does mean there are limits on what Lynas managment can do to change SP."
First statement is weakly supported by past SP behavior, but certainly somewhat true and that's good. Second statement is obviously true as China is ~80% of supply and demand. Third statement totally agree. Fourth statement totally disagree.
First, Lynas management has to be ready to answer any and all storage-related questions, including wrt Condisoil production and any additional radiation hazards that entails. They still have a role to play in approval, which has huge bearing on long term liabilities. HUGE. Share price will move with movement towards resolution.
Second, Lynas management has just shown the willingness to disrupt smooth operations and spend capital to improve product mix, hoping to move into higher-value markets. China might control the price of La/Ce, but Lynas management can start selling 3N 4N 5N La/Ce, where at the high end they could double plus revenues on a huge portion of their overall production. If successful, big SP move.
Third, Lynas management could be more investor-friendly. They like reaching out to the community in Malaysia, why not us? Throw us a bone. Is 2031 really when you're done? Because that's the last we heard. Shareholders don't like living like mushrooms.
LYC Price at posting:
$2.55 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)