Today's chart & trading, page-236

Fully agree with H1 statement. I suspect H2 and year will be a disappointing, especially on a per share basis. Why?
30% more shares, now than Dec 30. The real cost of the Mt K deal starts to show.
Lower ASP This combined with higher share count will cause a big reduction in EPS. Higher share count will also reduce impact of H1 earnings on year from 10 cents to about 7 cents. I am expecting 7 to 10 cents for year.
High cash outflows for NEXT and New mine. Hits to cash. CAP EX means little impact on earnings from these expenses.
Lower Equity per share. Equity will be up, because of canceled debt, not enough to compensate for increased shares.

This stock is tracking NdPr. NdPr prices rose nicely till last Friday and stock was at 2.55, since then Prices have been unchanged and stock is down 6% in a week. I think it is good that NdPr prices are taking a rest. I did not want to see another price boom bust cycle. I am surprised that stock dropped as much as it did, with prices unchanged
I am thinking that all this will make for a rough summer as far as stock price. I am expecting a nice Q1.
Higher ASP from generally higher Market prices.
Some benefits from parts of NEXT coming on line, to both ASP and volume.
Reduce cash burn from NEXT and new mine opening will have cash increasing again.

The only unknown that scares me is world stocks in general. If the markets have a correction, stocks like Lynas always get hit harder than markets in general. Like Lynas means. High PE, short positive earnings history, high debt to equity ratio. Low cash reserves. No assets that can be converted to cash on balance sheet without hurting company. Market slow down signals economy slow down which means lower commodity prices in general.