Today's chart & trading, page-577

How anybody could think this should be at $5.00 just shows total lack of investment knowledge. For these examples I will use APPL which has high metrics.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/key-statistics?p=AAPL
PE 19.0 Now Lynas had profits of 50 M in H1 I expect 30 mil in H2 which would be 80 million. But just to be generous lets use 100M Divide 700M shares times 20 ( I will round up 19.0) is a SP of $2.80.

Next sales Apples price sales ratio is 3.96 lets call it 4 Lynas sales last 4 Qs was 383M divide by 700 M shares is 0.54 times 4 is $2.26 Just about what SP is today.

Next Equity Lynas Equity at end of H1 was $334 M Now I am sure this went up maybe 10% but lets be aggressive and say 400M in AR Divide by 700M shares is $0.47 a share Apples price equity ratio is 8.81 lets round up to 9 x 0.47 is a SP of 4.23. Finally something close to your $5.00 but rember that Apple does almost none of their manufacturing Leases many of their buildings so there equity is real low compared to others. Most of it is cash. Now look at notes in last years AR or wait for this years. Lynas owns many things like cars software Trucks that most companies lease. This elivates there equity.

You might say, I know it will be worth more in a few years. I absolutely agree. Lets look at Vanguard S&P fund VFINX https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/investments/performance?fundId=0040 which had a return last year of 14.22% and last 5 years of 11.78% This is a very conservative investment. Most investors would see Lynas as much higher risk. I think they would want a potential of 25% gain per year for risk. To avoid argument I will use 20% So to justify a price of $2.25 today if you want to use forward looking numbers you have to Justify a price of $2.70 next year and 3.25 year after that and $5.60 in five years. I kept the compounded interest rate at 20% but most investors want higher returns when they have to wait longer. I actual think you can prove these numbers I know I could. But for $5.00 to day you have to prove $6.00 in a year $7.20 in two years $12.50 in 5 years Now this can be proved as well but it will take a run up in REE prices. This is a high risk item with China in control of prices. Investors would want a much higher % return if it was dependent on something totally out of Lynas’s control. Also rember that NdPr prices at end of Q1 last year were $57.00 Right now they are $42.00 and are still going down. So any justification on higher stock prices because of Higher REE prices needs a lot of justification. Investors will look at NdPr charts for last couple of years and laugh at you if you start talking prices 10% or 25% higher than today.

Please do not tell me you took what was in the latest mining report. Multiplied it times street prices and some discount factor. That is not done. It is the ASP - COP including all overheads that determines what the resources are worth. There is A reason in ground resources are not on the balance sheet. Lets wait for AR see how many tons were sold in year and what the profit was per ton.