By 2040 half the world's cars will be electric. All of them will...

By 2040 half the world's cars will be electric.
All of them will have to convert electricity from batteries to mechanical energy.
By far the best way to do that is with a powerful magnet.
Neodymium magnets are five times more powerful than regular magnets.
You can't make new things in the periodic table.
So without a neodymium magnet, your $30,000 electric car is an expensive paperweight.
Currently electric cars have about $100 to $200 worth of neodymium.
Point of pain is probably more like $1,000 to $1,500 before you make a second class electric car.

By 2040 I estimate just the electric car companies will need 112 thousand tons of neodymium per year (using the 35% EV estimate). Roskill thinks we’ll get to 50 million annual sales by 2030. Not going to happen. There won’t be enough neodymium by 2030! Current production is 33 thousand tons of neodymium per year (don’t forget the five to seven year startup and a billion dollars of capital expenses. Note: The feasibility study on Mt. Weld was completed in 2005. Initial production of salable REO started in 2012. And these are people who really know what they are doing.) My supply estimates go out through the mid 2020’s, and I only see about 6.4 thousand tons from new mines by 2020. That’s about 40 thousand tons of supply estimated for 2020. Consumption in 2016 was 45 thousand tons (with only 1% of cars being EV). Not anywhere close to 138 thousand tons that would be needed to build 50 million EV cars each year. Some more mines coming on-line during the early 2020’s will add about 15 thousand tons more, bringing total world supply up to 55 thousand tons by 2023. Just not going to be enough neodymium by 2030, when you will need 138 thousand tons if you want to build 50 million EV cars.
There will be a bidding war for all the available neodymium!
I expect the price of neodymium will reach $750 / kg by 2040 or so. All of that increased selling price drops straight to the bottom line. Lynas profits will go up by a factor of 20 to 50, carrying the stock price up with it. An investment in Lynas is a safe 20 bagger, and you can sleep at night.