LYC

0.87%

$8.09 lynas rare earths limited

Thanks St john you have posted some brilliant info recently you...

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nickster

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23/09/17

13:02

Post #: 27413142
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Originally posted by stjohnc ↑

This is speculation on what Patterson is doing, I have no insider information – but I’ve seen this sort of thing before:

We know +95% for sure that Mount Kellett conversions have pre-arranged homes thus sucking up surplus liquidity and locking it away from the general market.

When buyers are confirmed to Patterson (i.e. customers wishing to obtain influence over LYC or obtain take-over blocking stakes, for example) Patterson’s then borrow the stock and sell these to the designated buyers at 18 to 18 ¼ cents as we have seen by the price action over the last couple of days. (Technically this is shorting temporarily that may explain some of the shorting activity). This stock is readily borrowed from other brokers on behalf of clients for a relatively small fee. Holdings are held below 5% to avoid ASX rules of disclosure and maintain confidentiality of operations.

Patterson in parallel, pre-arrange to buy Mount Kellett converted shares at 17.75 cents. (As seen on the last announcement). When received they return the borrowed stock: result +¼ cent (plus other commissions) profit for limited risk for them.

ASX and CHI-X volume was only around 31 million shares today so we are talking about around +8x the volume of announced “ceasing to be a substantial holder”, so expect a few more days of the wash through next week at around 18 cents. (The previous substantial shareholder announcement was for 266.6m shares or 5.2%, so a 0.2% reduction to take it under 5% would only take around 10.3m shares: enough for yesterday’s/today’s volume and the “ceasing to be a substantial shareholder announcement” earlier)

Once the wash through is complete (and now that the substantial holding is under 5% this might accelerate - watch next week's volumes) and the converted bond shares are locked out with strategic long term holders, we should then see a resumption of the share price advance (All other things being equal). This is the short term liquidity negative response to the conversions that I have mentioned before that seems to be evident on the share price/ conversions chart posted previously.

Conclusion: This is share price positive but share price action and volumes next week will show if the above is a load of bollocks or if there is something else at play – Note: do your own research before making any investment decisions!

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Thanks St john you have posted some brilliant info recently you have a high intellect and I am very grateful

LYC Price at posting: 18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $8.09		Change 0.070(0.87%)		Mkt cap ! $7.561B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$8.15	$8.27	$8.08	$35.31M	4.353M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	7192	$8.08

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$8.10	4833	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	620	8.050
1	500	8.040
4	4222	8.030
1	100	8.020
2	742	8.010

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.110	8945	1
8.120	22984	2
8.140	1000	1
8.150	3078	2
8.170	12051	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 08/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

LYC (ASX) Chart

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