todays chart, page-210

First there is over US 425M Au $ 566Mmin debt. Most of the interest for the last 18 months was deferred to 2020. So after paying the July interest and and deferred interest, how much do you think is left. Lynas has tracked who has put in how much in R Cash, this is in the re-fi agreement, Most of the money is Jars, so little if any of Bound debt will be paid.

I realy doubt Lynas will let the free cash go over 25M till they are on better footing. Simple reason is once they do they have to pay the interest out of operating cash. Currently yearly interest in AU$ is $3.75M for Mt K and $6.7M for Jare. About $5M is paid twice a year in July and January . As long as they stay under 25M they can pay this with restricted cash. Restricted cash has been used by Lynas for short term interest free loans a few times in the last year. My guess is they will pay down some payables, pay a payment to AELB but keep it under 25M. It is interesting that Mt K could show up at Lynas's front door at 4PM June 30th with a check for 5M to exercise options and force them to return restricted funds. No Way do I think they would do it but it could be done. Pretty hard to get rid of $5m in 30 minutes. Unless you think it may happen.

Everyone seems to be worried about bounds being converted. No one is worried about what happens if they are not. Think of another re-fi in 2020. What will it cost the stock holders. Remember the US$200 M has to be paid to JARE first. Work out what NDPR prices have to be just to pay Jare. 293M divided by 50KT production over next 3 year That is a $6.00 Increase in asp. if it is a smooth ramp that means it has to be $12 higher summer of 2020. That is just to pay Jare. Possible? Yes. But I would not want to count on it. I should have not said ASP what counts is ASP - COP. Now figure what it would take to pay them both. This does not even include the interest that starts coming due in July.