Certainly not wasting my time constantly walking thru the very basics, nor sharing all my source data that verifies my comments, and I don't present a concept or fact without several points of reference. Taken 6yrs of constant research to move from understanding RE 12/18 months after the event, to understanding the current, to I believe now well ahead of the curve where I can project 12/18 months with some confidence.
Been a case of identifying three main cycles with myriad minor, fascinating challenge, made easier by China opening up with more information, and Lynas both creating & sharing hard data, the more you know the more you know.
One of Beijing's very successful efforts to develop the RE industry, building transparency @ mkt, has been the Baotou Exchange RE trading platform, totally ignored by the glitterati commentariat, and yourself:
YTD > La +16%, Ce +23.8%, NdPr +22.6% & metal +19.6%, but you know better, lol.
BTW, the pic above was created by a US Govt supported manufacturer of SmCo used in missile guidance systems, NOT an NdFeB advocat, and dates c2012. Arnold correctly identified early impact grain boundary diffusion, but unfortunately for them, not its ongoing success and the further innovation it would lead to.
The brilliant article that really focused my attention positives NdPr/Lynas from Dy deletion:
"Let me finish by asking: are you living under Dysprosium 1.2 or have you upgraded to Dysprosium 2.0? Ask yourself which paradigm carries less risk if heavy rare earth prices spike again. If you haven’t already, I suggest that you consider upgrading to Dysprosium 2.0 as soon as possible."
Written early 2013 by Dr. Stan Trout, it still holds up today, respect:
Deletion/increased efficiency HRE NdFeB creates cheaper, higher flux "stronger" mags with reduced mass, size/weight, to specific tasks, all broadening application & demand, with the bleedingly obvious consequence of increasing demand/value NdPr.
Divergence NdPr/Dy past 6 months is proving the concept up in spades, fortunately I have some more pics:
LYC Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)