Should definately be out if you believe what is written by Hartleys on 21/01.
Investment Highlights
• Senegal Upside Massive – Prospect generation for FAR’s Senegal acreage will be completed for NAPE, held on 7-8th February. This will provide newsflow about the portfolio of drillable prospects in FAR’s three offshore permits. Typical prospect size for one particular play targeted in the region is in the order 750mmbbls oil in-place. NAPE
will provide the opportunity to farm-out these prospects to a larger player who can firm up the drilling schedule, whilst also providing a free-carry for FAR through the forward exploration program. FAR is now the only ASX listed company with exposure to the offshore West
African margin and comparisons to Hardman are inevitable (recently acquired for A$1.5b by Tullow Oil PLC).
• China Solid Base, Upside Potential – FAR’s share of current reserves in China is 1.6mmbbls oil with further upside potential of over 1.5mmbbls. Strong news flow from the China acreage is expected, with 3-4 wells to be drilled in Q1 2008. 2-3 of these will be exploration wells, with one appraisal well on an existing discovery.
The submission of the Overall Development Plan (“ODP”) for the development of existing discoveries in the permit (60-66mmbbls 2P reserves gross) is also expected in Q1 2008.
• North American Exposure Increased – Either of two projects could double the value of the Company this year. 3D seismic programs have recently been completed over NE Waller (FAR: 34%) and Wild River (FAR: 29%). The prospects generated will be put on show at NAPE. It is anticipated that FAR will farm-down its interests to be free-carried through the exploration drilling, whilst still retaining
significant exposure to any upside. Both of these fields have a high chance of being drilled in 2008, possibly as early as Q2.
• Sound Strategy – Since the establishment of its Houston office, two years ago, FAR has gradually made the shift from being a deal taker to a deal maker. This can be evidenced by nimble action resulting in significant ownership in prospective acreage in Senegal, North
America and China. Importantly, this allows the Company to farm-out much of the expensive exploration drilling risk. This makes them a stand out on a risk/reward basis in their peer group.
Risked Valuation:
The fiscal regimes in which FAR operates have been modelled on a conservative, “most likely” basis to
determine the appropriate ratio for potential reserves to NPV. The risked Low and High valuations are based on
Probability of Success (“POS”) and most likely recovery rate ranges. Several of FAR’s other projects have been excluded as being immaterial or have been risked down to zero value given current circumstances. ""The valuation in the table below gives a risked valuation between 22 and 42cps, with an un-risked valuation as high as 298cps.""
If you haven't read it all yet go to the FAR website and you'll find it under the Research tab.
I agree with Kuzhyl. The company is trying to build up interest prior to the Senegal results being released.
jd
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