I'd say realistically, that the value without commercialisation...

I'd say realistically, that the value without commercialisation should be assumed to be zero, and the discount rate should be much higher than 6%. Government bond yields for that time horizon are >3%!

The value with commercialisation is also not a single Bayesian node, it is its own Bayesian tree with some nodes having a SP of $50+ and others <$5.

The variables that contribute to valuation are also not independent of each other: I'd say that a faster commercialisation will certainly be the result of a push by the DoE, which would also be industry wide, so we should expect commensurately lower long term U prices in that scenario.

All I know is that we are still cheap right now. The DoE is talking about spending USD3b-4b on building domestic uranium supply, which means that the actual figure that will get tipped into this plan will probably be closer to USD8b-12b (since when has any government department ever done anything without blowing through their budget?).

We are set to feast at that table (trough). Add to that the enormous value that a DoE fast-track will create, and the fact that we could very well find ourselves holding a very strong hand, and it becomes clear that our downside is still very modest compared to our realistic upside.