todays news sounds positive, page-22

Hi there and good evening!

After reading the announcement several times I think

a) they somehow messed it up completely. Today they look at a huge pile of mud, cement, samples, distorted and incomplete data due to the loss of material into the structure and scratch their had, wondering what to make out of it.

or

b) they do not want to let the market and/ or the Kenyan government know what they have.

Probably it is a mixture of a) & b), who knows.

Huge losses of drilling fluid, seawater (how did it get into the borehole???) and cement into the structure => should not happen, but of course can, but what really makes me wonder is that after weeks it seems like they still have no propper idea - officially - what kind of liquids they found. In the 21st century, with all that technique available? It is hard to believe.

However... I gave Google a try regarding how to define a net pay zone. So far:

Defining a net pay zone depends among others on what has been found. It can make a difference whether it is gas or liquid/ oil.

Porosity is one indicator besides permeability, water saturation and probably some more.

The cut off value, in "our" case 10%, is not carved in stone somewhere, it can vary and must be chosen, depending on several thoughts, assumtions and decissions.

There are different procedures to define a net pay zone based on core samples, wireline logs and therefore different results, depending on the procedure chosen.

Conclusion: For me this seems to be far away from a serious preliminary report of results of the evaluation process.

It also could be that they threw some bones to the market to chew on so that the phones stop ringing all the time, because for me it is hard to believe that they know so few only.

Farm-in/ JV politics as well as Kenyan politics might play a role, too.

So let's see what the final outcome will be, but till a further announcement several weeks or even month will pass, probably.

In the meantime we hopefully see some progress offshore Namibia.

Cheers and have a good evening,
Neo