zwu- yes i had done the mortgage the house bit with tax offsets etc,the rorts in the sharemarket combined with my own naivety and personal share selections in companys that lacked appropriate disclosure ,caused the loss of equity however the mechanics of markets and oversight has improved significantly since the gfc whose cause i researched in great depth,i have renewed faith in markets particularly in the area of disclosure and sold to take advantage of the very low prices,it proved to be the correct decision and have since purchased another home.
i did not buy gunns at the depths of the gfc but have traded them in the past with little success,i track fallen stocks everyone has a modus operandi and this is mine,i dont think that gunns is a perfect buy but it fits my criteria,and at current prices think its a good fit for my particular strategy.
i am a registered trader not investor ,my style of research is fundamentally different to an investor,i am not an accountant but do have a chartered firm to call on for advice.
and i maintain that while many have stated gunns has a past and clearly the timber industry has substantial problems,i remain a great believer in survival of the fittest gunns must be painfully aware of the changes in the timber industry and since the time i guess when you sold have embarked on a strategy of strategic{read survival} acquisitions which i have followed with great interest.
thats the part that interests me,the drivers of what could be a very diverse business model for the future,the sins of the past we cannot change and while you refer to mis schemes as ponzi schemes i can relate to it as i took out investments for my children, knew nothing at that time regarding investment relying solely on the advice of a so called trusted professional.that was 28years ago i owned my home outright and invested 10k
10 years later when it became necessary to exit the scheme due to financial problems i got 25% back contained in the statement was the disclosure of fees to the investment professional ,this was prior to laws being introduced regarding disclosure,i fronted the professional and i guess many others had the same experience he lost his status in local politics and as an investment professional.
if there is one lesson i have learnt in life investment advisors receive fees so i prefer to make my own decisions,which generally are quite contrarian largely because of the criteria i apply.
i had a large outlay in afg an accounting professional and investment advisor a person of the outmost integrity was as deceived by the balance sheet and lost millions of his own and clients investments so i tend to think i am in good company,the one thing i no longer do is invest in things i dont have some understanding of or feel uncomfortable .
the underlying theme on this thread is the past
i maintain the timber industry was built on a joint effort with the govt of the day and the govt. model has changed substantially since the menzies era of govt ownership,this is largely driven by the change in economic theory being applied throughout the developed world.
i could offer even more theory on the possible effects of these changes and certainly they are not all positive in particular for some investors,personally i would never again put money into trees excepting the manager,and this is what gunns represents the manager,they must change for a variety of reasons the new approach for govts is privatisation not active ownership,gunns future in old growth is as limited as the existing contracts.
these are some of the reasons i see gunns as an outstanding opportunity at the present point in time,but then the approach i take can show huge returns with risk,the risk in gunns is limited by the price,and it may become even cheaper you never know
GNS Price at posting:
57.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
