Today's Performance, page-120

I think the best way to look at the price movement is too look at reality:

SAS current market cap is around 154 million. To just get to the price that the last CR was done at ie. 12 cents the SP would need to appreciate by 50 percent. That would bring the market cap to around 224 million, for a company that currently is not producing any profit, barely any satellites up and a long list of MOU related to companies that are themselves speculative eg, beeptool, universal cyberlink, commsat, IATAS, etc. The general trend of the SP merely follow what values there are for investors. If you think about it objectively SAS has not really injected any real value to the business since the launch of the 3Ds. All of the MOU and agreements that have been announced so far have been nothing but obligation free quote or vanity or fluff agreements with no real substance. People put a lot of hope on global sat deal but realistically how different would that particular one be in comparison to all the others that have gone before.

The best case scenario at present would be IF the 20 pearls are indeed fully funded and after the launch they can immediately generate significant amount of revenue that then allow the SP to appreciate past 12 cents after which they can do another CR for the last 180 nano satellites by 2020. Obviously a lot of SAS supporter would love for such scenario to happen but it is highly unlikely for some obvious reasons and thus reflected onto the SP over the months, reasons which I will explain:

1. The 12 million funding blackhole despite management saying otherwise. Only time will prove who is right in this but if the 12 million holes that I personally calculated does exist then I think it would serve to not only be nails in the coffin for SAS but also a cremation. Everything would end here.
2. In the event that SAS indeed have the fundings required then they would need by now to have a lot of offtake deals signed that guarantees cashflow. That has not happened yet so is SAS going to start scrambling to find customers after the launch? How long would that take and how reliable would such venture be? I doubt it would be practical.
3. Even if everything went smoothly SAS claimed that they are going to get all of the satellite up by 2020. At oresent they have not got a single pearl up and running and any launches are going to be set for 2019. So what would happen to the rest of the satellites? SAS going to secure 150 million of fundings and then all 180 are going to be launched at the end of 2019? Because to fulfill SAS claim of full constellation up then they would have to do exactly that.

So in order to meet the claim of 2020 SAS will have to in 2019:

Launch the 20 pearls, scramble to find customers, secure deals with them and generate sizeable and sustainable revenue in hope that the SP would appreciate enough to warrant another capital rasing of 150 million...150 million. Get gommspace to build everything in 2019 then launch all 180 sats before 2019 end. The SP would have to be way more than 12 cents at the time of the CR or I dont think anyone would want to participate and the CR would fail. I don’t know how management is going to pull it off but considering that it took them years just to get 3 diamonds up then I don’t think it is humanly possible to do it at current cisrcumstance. At the end of it though what would the SP be? Honestly, personally I dont think it is going to be in the 20 cents mark or even close to it. Then SAS will need to prove their business model...or fight off competition...

A lot of uncertanties and a lot of burned investors is why the SP is moving the way it is. If there is any manipulation then it would be the pump and dump that have been observed reppetitively over the course of the year right after announcements. Once coincidence? Twice? Three times?