todays posts, page-4

Maybe my (occasional) posts might have seemed a bit negative, and I still do hold shares (to put it as another - I held a house worth, but not any longer).

As my investment decision was purely based on Huntleys reports, with no real attempt on my part to ascertain value myself, I wonder whether I should reassess. I do enjoy the passion and enthusiasm of some on HC, but because I have no confidence that I can predict short term behaviour, I must look to what I think the underlying value might be, and also what the market may consider the value to be.

And whilst sentiment appears to be very important, eventually value wins out. From the information I have gathered the most reasonable conclusion is that cash flow will be negative for CMR for this year, and that $24M will be rapidly consumed. Whilst, in the long term there is probably good value (if costs to extract go up for everyone, then the market price will also - but only after a lag), in the short term CMR looks as it it will struggle.

It is simply a matter of trying to determine whether it worth risking the money I still have invested in CMR.

I actually think the price will recover in the short term (I have not reliable argument to support that belief), but in the medium (6 months) it seems likely that there will again be a disappointment.

HC is a better venue if it can support unpalatable arguments without crucification (although I am sure there are many posts made with self interest in mind!).