Todays price in $ Aust, page-13

Since I am a participant in the other (Norwegian) chat room, I agree that it might be worthwhile joining here as well. I have been following APCL for the better part of this year, but have also followed FAR and their JV partners in the Deep Sangomar license. I was not aware of this chat room until utkant posted a polite "invite" elsewhere.

I do think APCL is holding a number of really attractive licenses in Senegal and the Gambia, and am somewhat intrigued by the Cote d'Ivoire license that Ophir farmed into, I am not so convinced by the CI-509 license because of the dry hole that was just drilled inboards. The Liberia licenses have had three dry holes, so I am not convinced they are for small players (they might work, but will it will require a significant drilling program to crack the code with the different channels).

Sierra Leone is in my mind an utter waste of time due to the water depth. I think these were licenses acquired when Timis was involved, as this seems like a typical Frank thing to do by securing completely useless licenses and pawn them off on unwitting investors.

And herein lies my main concern with APCL, I have yet to single company where any minority shareholders have made money where our favorite Romanian has been involved. I take it on face value that he is no longer involved aside from being the largest shareholder, but he has left a messy imprint on the company. You have the plane, the intercompany loans and a number of other issues that has proven to be extremely poor corporate governance in the past. Hopefully this has ended with the new management team, but time will tell. I am also somewhat concerned by the fairly abrupt departure of both the previous CEO and the previous chairman, although it may have a perfectly reasonable explanation.

On top of this we have the outstanding payables, offset by the recent farmout to Ophir. Whether this is enough to put the company on a solid footing is not completely clear from their somewaht opaque financial statements.

All of this being said, I think they have some really interesting licenses in Senegal and the Gambia. SOSP, A1 and A4 are all on trend with SNE and FAN on the Deep Sangomar licenses, which I really like. I am less convinced by the ROP license from what I have seen so far, because it has no shelf and can therefore not contain an SNE like structure.

In short, I think the company has a number of really attractive licenses, some issues with shareholders and finances, and then we come to the elephant in the room: Farm-outs. The company will obviously live or die with what it can farm out over the next few months, unless it can get an extension on its drilling obligations.

If they can get the licenses farmed out over the next few months I think they have a bright future, if they don't, they will either need to do a capital raise fairly shortly or they will start losing licenses. In other words, I think this is a stock that will be heaven or hell before the end of the year. Huge potential, but it has almost unlimited risk. I am on the rollercoaster with a farily meaningful shareholding, but don't know if it will be the time of my life or if it will crash.

Subsequent posts from me may be a bit more factual, but I thought it was worthwhile giving my big picture thoughts before getting into details.