Fact is OFL Samo-1 is the key like you said, and I myself have put numbers around what I believe it could be worth and no matter how you slice it, or what numbers you use, it is the most important well FAR will have drilled since SNE by a country mile, not least of which is due to a very healthy 40% WI.
FAR will have options galore and they will also have made it neigh on impossible for any corporate action to fix arbitration [ not that I believe it will ever happen from WPL to much face to lose there ].
Will we end up with Erins share? Who knows.....what I do know is Erin is broke and regardless of whether Erin The Gambia is in or out of chapter 11/7 is IMO completely irrelevant.
The other examples you have pointed to have one very large difference.....those companies are not bankrupt.....I believe this changes the game completely.
My understanding is there is a 30 day notice from the government in the event of bankruptcy, then the company has 90 days to rectify it......with no means of paying they can't rectify it, that's what leads me to believe the government will cancel Erins share, now what they do with that share is really the question. One would rightly expect Petronas and FAR to be at the front of the cue given they are about to drill.
But I agree we will find out eventually and I don't believe we will get any extra from Erin for free either. DB
FAR Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)