Is it really a risk that has been factored in to the SP?
Given that Australia is on good terms with Brazil, the use it or lose it policy on the NW shelf, and that the current government is desperate for revenue to try to dig themselves out of the hole they are in, I sincerely doubt that the market would view the FIRB decision as high risk, and therefore I do not expect the SP to rise significantly following the almost inevitable approval.
All my opinion only, and happy to be proved wrong.
MEO Price at posting:
37.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held