Usually the dividend retraces pretty much in line with the...

Usually the dividend retraces pretty much in line with the financial performance of a stock. TOL is not the type of company you hold for yield.

High depreciation and amortization costs cause low net profit margins. I would expect the payout ratio to revert from the recent 60%+ area to the more historic 40% region, which would see the DPS drop to around 15-16c. At the current sp, that's a yield of about 3.5%, but a DPS cut to 15c would probably see further pressure on the sp.

I rode this stock for 10 years when it was under Paul Little and he created great shareholder value, but he knew when to move on. There are now much better options out there for our money in my opinion.