Tomorrow is bearish

Plenty of people are bullish on the stock, so much so that the froth in this stock is even more than the froth in the coffee I drink.

No one wants to listen to any of the opposing views, which is a pretty good indicator of whether a stock is a good time to invest in or not. The reason I'm still here is because I use hotcopper in general to gauge the froth in a stock. I laugh when I see stock undervalued and nobody talks about it. Whenever I see someone who holds a valid opinion getting 'slaughtered' in the forum, that usually tells me irrationality has taken hold and it's definitely a time to sell.

I haven't seen people really reading the report for what it is. Yes, plenty of good things to like in the report. But plenty to not like about it as well.

Problem is relaxation of one child policy is not going to cause a huge increase in birth rate in china. I happened to travel for 3 weeks recently with someone whose dad is a high ranking official in China(by luck I got to meet this dude) and I gathered from him that the policy is not going to impact much at all on the populace. So if you're banking on lots more babies to sustain a2m growth,then good luck.

The other thing to note is that the instos do run their numbers before they decide their course of action. They usually have measures like PE ratio and operating cashflow, future profit growth projection, etc in their numbers. PER of 60 with negative cashflow is a big no no today. Worse still if you're spending money to expand in China! Today's environment instos are fairly skittish and very few are bullish at all. Anything that have any connections to China will be a good target to smash its share price. China's market valuation had been at PE ratio of above 60 previously. See what happened to it?? Got smashed...

This makes A2M a perfect target to short and take profit in the near term. The instos know very well that general sentiment is bad, so they'll feed on it and will push the share price to new lows, then accumulate it and wait for the next round. So, if you're expecting the share price to touch new highs again in near term, I would encourage you to think again. I for one will wait for the BIG SHORT (short or profit taking or capital preservation) to come. Then I'll jump in when the value upside vs downside balance is right.

Again, don't get me wrong, A2M still has good potential, but only if you're in it for 3 to 5 years!! I seriously doubt that many investors here will hold that long!!

Good luck to the long term holders (>5yrs).