Tomorrows Quarterly Production Report, page-59

Well said bp I agree, people who won't change their view on both sides of the fence are usually dangerous to their own financial health (and sometimes others).

Like I said I am surprised at this report, but I am sceptical mainly due to the FY15 report being pretty poor. In fact I believe they made a loss for the second half of FY15. I may yet come around, the half year report I will read through with interest, if it genuinely matches with what they are reporting now, after analysing cashflow, balance sheet movements in particular working capital, then that would be a big step in the right direction.

Aussie Joe, I understand what you are saying, that by the time it has been proven the share price would be much higher. Like I said though I am sceptical due to their FY15 results, I find it difficult to believe that such a huge reduction in costs has happened so quickly, and is sustainable, but well done to them if they have. There are parts of the balance sheet and cashflow statement not reported in the quarterly which I would like to see before making a more informed decision. If I miss out so be it there are a lot of stocks to choose from, I've found simply avoiding big errors (by avoiding big risks) makes a huge difference to my overall returns.

If I did buy FMG (after analysing the half year and preferably the full year FY16 and they have proven they can pay down debt consistently at that rate, which I am at this point highly sceptical of), it would be a medium term balance sheet trade until they trade well above book value. Long term 5-20 years I think Rio will outperform Fmg even if fmg are matching their forecasts. Shorter term fmg could outperform if a re-rating to book value and higher looks truly deserved, but at this point for me it is too risky an investment.