Tomorrows SP, page-66

Also you can listen to the naysayers. We had them at 50c, at $1, at $1.5, etc etc. And you'll get them on any stock. They'll try to convince you that every stock that has performed well has done so without good reason and is destined to fall (many are like that but there are some that are not - just go and look at historical charts of what are now successful companies and you'll see they all suffered many big periods of downswings (you often don't see them in the now non-detailed view of their long history) despite not being amongst those that were destined to fall). Naysayers play on the human nature aspect of fear; and fear of losing money is high on the list of things people fear and do so by trying to state generalisms as applicable to a given stock in order to make the fear seem more based in reality. You need to decide for yourself whether what they say is scaremongering or is actually fact.

You can listen to and follow those that have analysed the company, Stonepeak have looked over and continue to look over everything and are committing $660m to own part of Magnolia, SK E&C have looked over the technology and construction required and are signing a fixed price contract to build a working plant on time and on budget (if it's not on budget they pay the difference, if it's not on time they pay us $1m a day until it's complete), the tollers have looked over every detail of the project and are planning to sign 20 year contracts to take or pay for gas and will be putting those payments and their credit ratings on the line in order to back the companies debt funding of the project, BNP paribas are looking over all the details of the project to ensure debt funding will be bankable, Baupost have had there analysts and consultants look over all the details of the project and have bought 10% of the company (including recently buying around 2% at up to $2.60 (sure it's not the high $3's and the low $4's but if they see value at $2.60 they aren't looking for a $1.40 return in 3+ years) and the other respected insto's have done the same (the only insto who has sold has sold because their share of the company had grown beyond the predefined internal policy regarding the portion of their portfolio that an individual share can represent). I could go on an on, but add to that list whatever you like (independent assessments of the tech is another) . It's certainly the case that all of these companies could be wrong, and each of us on HC who still hold shares could also be wrong. It's certainly the case that something outside the companies control could go wrong and no matter how right in their analysis all these companies were stuff just happens in business that you can't control (that's the world - I could get hit by a bus, etc etc). However you also have to take into account the steps that the company has and is putting into place to address risk - fixed price construction contract, take or pay tolling, no responsibility for gas supply, etc etc. Recently the market has seen the price of oil as a potential issue for LNG, many have however provided reasons for why this is just an incorrect perception of how things are and will be. Make up your own mind. The naysayers will say that perception is all that matters, and it certainly does in the short term, which is why traders look to charts to gauge perception and price movements. The naysayers will say that just because a big respected insto is in the top 20 doesn't mean the company will succeed, and there are certainly many cases where they've been there and the company has failed (they don't always get it right, but they also don't always get it wrong and the good ones get it right many more times than they get it wrong).

Finally you can listen to the chartists and traders who will tell you about the perception of the market shown in the sp charts and how this should inform your decision about likely future price movements. The question is is this relevant beyond the short term, and is this how you want to try to make money. Make up your own mind which way you want to go, or even if you want to do a combination of both short term trading and long term investing.

I'm certainly not trying to convince you that I'm right or that others are wrong, I'm just trying to move the discussion back to facts (apart from some of the valid factual discussion about where current price movements and perception may go in the short term). Take the facts and do what you will with them, dispute whatever you like and point out where I'm wrong. Hopefully others will do the same. Maybe we'll learn something or uncover something we don't know and we'll all be the better for it.