I don't think it's going to make life easier for the Tanzanian plays put it that way.
Yes the modeling suggests exponential growth over the coming decade however in the next 2-5 years companies who are fortunate enough to secure financing and build a mine will need to off-take their graphite if they are to be viable.
Having the right partners will be critical and Triton getting point position on the large expandable flake market could potentially choke our competitors for the next few years.
Triton having such a diverse asset base of both expandable and fine flake projects could prove potent. Theoretically once Triton have Ancuabe online the economics suggest that they could be in a strong position in the next 2-5 years financially to fast track both Nicanda Hill and Nicanda West.
The fast tracking of Nicanda Hill could be further aided by a near term partial sale/jv as Peter is currently sourcing.
I think I now know why we have not seen Jinan Hi-Tech make a play for the whole pie. They are probably aware that a successful bid would be rather costly given the spread across Triton's share register.
I've never felt Triton was an investment for Jinan Hi-Tech, just a means to securing concessional building materials. By owning 34% of Triton they aren't looking to take it over in my opinion, they are looking to make sure players like Xingchen Graphite don't take us over and they have only had to initially invest $20m to secure that objective. They have invested enough to have influence and protect their back end objective at 34%.
If you can't beat them as a manufacturer join em! Xingchen in my opinion will be looking to align themselves with Triton because they know we have an asset base that is unmatched. Being one of China's largest finished graphite product manufacturers, it will be important to secure their future supplies based on the modeling and Triton is the one stop shop for all their flake needs.
What better way for Xingchen to secure their future than an initial 30,00tpa offtake for Ancuabe's expandable large flake now and a jv for Nicanda Hill that gives them fine flake well into the next 30 years?
Jinan are going to be winners by selling their graphite to Xingchen who pump it out as finished material at concessional prices on the other side for them to use in their billions of infrastructure projects.
Xingchen win because they are getting a secure, stable and likely concessional supply of large flake and the opportunity to invest and own a part share of Nicanda Hill getting their fine flake for the next 30 years plus for free.
The biggest winners of coarse will be Triton shareholders who will reap all the windfalls of having a few of the biggest hitters in Shangdon/China in their corner. We could stand to have Ancuabe fully funded, a partner for Nicanda Hill who will also be responsible for their share of any capital or capex needs and most importantly a guaranteed point of sale for both our large and fine flake into the next decades.
Let's not forget we have the largest known deposit of vanadium in the world in our asset portfolio at Nicanda Hill.
All just conjecture but yes..If Triton gets going it could cause competitors a few headaches.
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