too fast too soon, page-8

"IMO the SP may hold after FDA approval announcement. The whole biotech sector is currently outpeforming any other sector. Just take a look at PRR ADO CBZ PBT TIS for example. The biotechs are holding strong in the recent market correction when mining and other sectors are retreating.

Hi interestedtoo,

I'm not denying the biotech sector is outperforming the market. Infact, as a very invested follower of this sector myself since the very beginning of the global biotech boom in 2009 I believe there remains every bit of evidence that this sector will continue to outperform all others until 2013, coinciding with the last of a huge Big Pharma patent cliff they have been faced with since 2009.

All the giant names of the Pharmaceutical world have/are re-positioning themselves to deal with their dwindling profits and in doing so, as you and David have correctly stated are very hungry for biotechnology firms in the area of M&A. However, in saying this the majority of big pharma are also cutting down on R&D spending and instead are choosing to hop in bed with biotech companies during late stages of phaselll trials.

"IMO the SP may hold after FDA approval announcement"

Imho, as I said previously d/traders will determin the price from here until FDA gives clearance notice. Imo, they will drive it higher and lower than the current 10c level before this date but many of them will be looking for an exit point as they are simply not interested in the long time frames expected between trials.
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"It is not good practice to base sp spikes based only on the lessor performing companies with previous similar Anns as there are other factors in play here...."

High David,

With all due respect PRR has an MC of almost $300mil so I would have to disagree with you and agree with what the market has already decided on this point.

On that same note, it was not long over a year ago now that I was last offering a similar caution on this same forum. VLA spiked to 12c on announcement of successful phase 1 results, then what happened? Traders took their profits and ran.

I'm simply just suggesting caution is a sensible approach during d/trader driven plays. I have no doubt that when/if Viralytics receive phaselll FDA approval and commercialize Cavatak in 4-5 years from now we'll see a sp multiplied many times above the current level but imho I'll remain convinced she's run too fast too soon.
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"Its hard to believe the market has "factored" in FDA approval already ... that is purely a valuable opinion though ..

Hi ozkartman,

When the market is aware of the content and expected date of an imminent announcement due, there's every good reason to believe the price will be factored in before the news arrives.