No-one has responded with anything reasonable so I am the sole raving lunatic.
AGS have 340M shares on issue. If they prove up 27 million pounds for themselves (eventually) and Healthgate buy the project for $10 lb, that is $270m or 80 cents a share.
If Healthgate buy the project for $15 lb, that is $405m or $1.20 a share.
At a takeover at $15 lb, add $39 opex and Heathgate's costs will be $54 per pound. The add another $3 lb for CAPEX and other costs. Total costs are $59 per lb.
At US$65 revenue, earnings before tax is $17 lb. Less tax it falls to $12 per pound.
Return for Heathgate for their trouble is $12 lb or 20% on their outlay.
Increase revenue to US$70 lb and the return becomes 30%.
OK. Maybe I was wrong before or maybe I am wrong now.
I am merely saying with only 15 million lbs proved up and spot price at US$50, the share price will struggle at the moment.
Even if AGS had 27 million pounds, the upside is limited and definitely not Gandel's $2 to $3.
AGS Price at posting:
80.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
