The 2000 election left many Democrats disillusioned over myriad issues. Not the least of which was the candidacy of Ralph Nader that was able to receive 2.88 million votes of popular support. In the two critical states of Florida and New Hampshire, Bush’s margin of victory was slimmer than the total number of votes Nader received. I am no fan of the two-party system, and I did support Nader’s right to run in 2004, however when it all came down to the day of the election, most of his supporters including myself abandoned him. Howard Dean’s exciting campaign in the fall of 2003 brought in many new voters who were unhappy about the Iraq war, it also captured many old Nader supporters. The concern of the 2004 election was grave and thus Nader’s candidacy flopped this time around. In 2004, Ralph was only able to muster up 397,464 votes, about 2.5 million less than his support in 2000.
Examining the results of this election reveals some striking details that should make everyone who opposed Bush very concerned. In 2000 Al Gore received 51.00 million votes, in 2004 Kerry only received 55.7 million. The 2.5 million Nader voters who left him did not simply evaporate. Nader supporters are intelligent progressives who oppose corporate rule and the two-party system, but knowing the stakes this time around, it was very predictable they would abandon him. This 2.5 million went to John Kerry. Exit polls show that Kerry also picked up a small 1 in 10 fraction of 2000 Bush voters, meanwhile Bush picked up the same amount of the 2000 Gore supporters this time around, making this issue a wash. With these facts, namely the 2.5 million Nader supporters going to the side of the Democrats, Kerry already had 53.5 million votes solidified. The assertion that 2.5 million voters who voted for a third party in 2000 went to Kerry in 2004 is probably actually an understatement. A CNN exit poll showed that out of the minority of 3.87 million people who voted for any third party in 2000, 71% voted for Kerry this time around. That equals to about 2.75 million voters. So again, adding this figure to Gore’s total of 51.00 million in 2000 shows that Kerry would have had 53.5 – 53.75 million votes in this election regardless of any new voter support. Therefore, according to the official results, the Kerry campaign was only able to capture no more than 2 million new voters to get him to his total of 55.7 million this past election.
On the other hand, President Bush received only 50.45 million votes in 2000, but now the official results show him having 59.3 million votes. That’s nearly 9 million new voters that turned out for him. Very impressive isn’t it? Remember listening to all the pundits talking about how both sides are planning to register new voters? Remember the hundreds of thousands of new registrations in urban areas in swing states that were overwhelmingly concentrated in Democratic strongholds. This was a well-documented issue and a cause for concern for the Republicans who consequently insisted on challenging voters in urban minority districts. The exit polls didn’t exactly show a Kerry landslide among new voters, but they did show him with a comfortable 54-45 majority among those who did not vote in 2000.
Wait a minute, how can all of this add up? Pre-election news stories about voter registrations seem to favor Kerry by extreme margins, exit polls of new voters show Kerry winning with a moderate but solid majority, the cultural movement of “Anyone-But-Bush” that included the rise of MoveOn.org and fan base around Michael Moore made it pretty predictable that there would be a lot of new voters out there casting their ballots to get rid of Bush. Heck, the very fact that an election for an incumbent president was predicted to have strong turnout inherently favors the challenger. People do not wait in long lines and break their typical pattern of apathy only to vote to reaffirm what they have, they only vote when they feel a desperate need for change. This is a basic truism that applies to every situation and society involving electoral politics.
The fact of the matter is that despite these fundamental and reasonable expectations, the official returns showed that Bush got somewhere in the range of 9 million new voters turning out for him, meanwhile Kerry only got no more than 2 million. Aside from the analysis I’ve made, this is also a shock for another reason. The Republicans have always turned out their base in great numbers; this problem has only and always been with the Democrats. The official results are an utter shock and a slap in the face of this basic analysis. Without any additional information, it is up to each individual to draw conclusions. The two likely possibilities are either electoral fraud in electronic voting machines, or an unprecedently successful effort by Karl Rove to skim the Bible-belt for 9 million new non-voters to back George Bush along with a massive conspiracy by all exit pollsters to show a consensus of Kerry winning a small but considerable majority of previous non-voters
