With 100% certainty of the deal being concluded in its current form the share price would revert to about 50cents give or take a few cents depending on how the market viewed the residual value of the gold assets and the future prospects of the company. The market is discounting this outcome by about ~40% at present so it is ascribing a probability that the deal will be concluded in its current form of about 60%. Failure of the deal to conclude would in my opinion see the share price fall further in the absence of an enhanced or alternative offer. There is some risk in voting no, but then again that outcome could elicit a higher offer. Esh
BGS Price at posting:
33.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
