AFY 0.00% $2.74 afterpay holdings limited

Just to clear the air, I am on here because Im sick of watching...

  1. 656 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 50
    Just to clear the air, I am on here because Im sick of watching public shareholders get abused... and I am semi retired in my early 30s, so thank you.

    So here's my "financial kindy lesson:

    "This business lends money... any business that lends money, cant run much more than a 4 or 5 to one Debt to equity ratio on a book... without sourcing Mez debt, which becomes highly unviable due to 12-14% interest rates. Based on that, the business might have enough cash to get to an $80m book at present... But, to justify a $300m+ valuation, it would need to get to alteast a $300-$500m book at bare minimum, which means the business will need to raise $60m-100m+ in equity to support this... That means dilution. Now public shareholders, should be looking to not prop up a share price, pre raiase, because if management raise soon, at its current stupidly inflated valuation, the majority shareholders will be the only ones laughing all the way to the bank (at your expense), because instead of raising equity of $20-$30m for 20-30% of the business, they instead will be able to raise for 5%, suck in more unsuspecting public shareholders at $2 plus a share. If they do that a couple more times, they then have all the capital they need...and havent had to dilute much... and then the business hits maturity, trades at 10-15 times PE... and the market cap is still $300m...

    Instead of saying I'm wrong, just look at other mature lending comps Flexi, Scottish Pacific... they are trading at between 7-15x PE.

    The truth hurts mate, I have just seen a lot of it from giving end, to know better.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add AFY (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.