I will be back in if TB and team find significant quantaties of...

I will be back in if TB and team find significant quantaties of oil at any of these initial wildcat wells, but at this point, while reading between the lines and doing my DD, Iv'e decided I'm out .

SSN has been a great investment for me and I have always liked the game plan, but it's become evident to me in the last few weeks that the risk vs. reward is too great at this point in the game.

It is becoming very expensive to drill and complete wells domestically in the U.S., and I'm betting Ft. Peck will not be the oil field many here and in the US have assumed it will be. I do not like the long term production rates I see with near by bakken wells. My guess is Aus II will IP in the 150-200 bopd range which the market will not like and rightfully so. It was just two months ago that TB estimated 900 bopd from the Rosevelt Bakken in an intercom enterview. I'm optimistic on Gretel because of some of the stated 3d and core findings, but one has to expect delays with getting the well online, and I will also guess this comes in under 500 bopd based on the thinner, not as mature Rosevelt Bakken.

I believe they will find oil it the strategic Goshen traps, but I'm betting it will not be the quantities they need to turn good profits at 5 million per well.


Finally, Defender, while producing, has cost HAL well north of 7 million dollars at this point for under 300 bopd. I don't think HAAL will commit to the second well, which will mean even more downside near term.

My optimisim here began it's fall with SOA I, and only fell further with Defeneder (TB pridicted the nio to produce 500-1000 bopd IP in a 2010 enercom interview).

Overall, I think SSN is burning cash very fast with little production revenue in return. North Stockyard field has been the workhorse, but the future for this company is still a complete gamble with the nio, goshen traps, and Ft. Peck. I won't want to be in this stock should sub-par Aus II results come in and a HAL back-out be announced in the same op update.

Anyway, I'm taking profits and will probably keep cash on the sidelines until I see quality execution here with very economical IP rates on these initial wildcat wells.