You've raised some valid points. From my perspective, ChatGPT is...

You've raised some valid points. From my perspective, ChatGPT is not only useful but highly so, especially for the grunt work in coding. Yes, it does have its moments of 'hallucination', and without proper scrutiny, it lead you to dead ends. However, from where I stand, it's an invaluable tool I wouldn't want to part with.

In my work, which honestly consists of about 80%, IQ-80 level routine tasks like emails, meetings, drawing diagrams, and managing project timelines, I expect LLM integrated tools from the likes Microsoft's or Google's LLM/Multimodal to take over these monotonous tasks this year.

Regarding an LLM/AI passing the Turing test as AGI, I agree it's not there yet. But comparing today to 20 years ago, when AGI seemed like science fiction, I now see its emergence as inevitable. Whether it's by 2024, 2034, or 2044, with all the twists and turns as expected, I believe AGI will be a reality within my lifetime.

I don't think we're too far from having an AGI capable of passing Turing tests in subjects where we aren't experts or professionals. For instance, I could easily imagine a scenario where an LLM could convince me it's human if I were to question it about something outside my expertise, like sewing a frock, Egyptian frogs, or French philosophers.