So, I’ve collated the changes in the Top 20 from 9th of July to...

So, I’ve collated the changes in the Top 20 from 9^th of July to 30^th September to try and get a grip on what’s been happening, especially with Credit Suisse and Peters and Co. Below is the summary, with the substantial holder notice from CS on September 15^th inserted.

Because of the share consolidation, I have scaled everything by the percentage of total shares.

Also, in the earlier Top 20 statements, Peters and Co appeared as two separate entries; in the latest statement, as a combined single entry. Therefore, to ensure consistency over time, I analysed only the Top 19.

Here’s the summary table.

I will let people draw their own conclusions (if any).
But several points stand out. First of all, in net, the Top 20 has been buying. Suggesting consolidation by 'those in the know'.
The HSBC nominees account, which I assume holds shares of previous Blackspur holders, has been selling down. The biggest net buyers have been Credit Suisse, unsurprisingly and Warrell Holdings (who it this?). This leads credence to the idea that some stale, smallholders have been net sellers to larger players.

What is also interesting is the overall stability of the Top 19.

In this period, volumes equated to 17.8% of total shares traded. All else equal, you’d expect the Top 19 to equate for around half of this (8.9%) based on the Top 19’s share of total shares. However, as you can see, net acquisitions accounted for 4.78% of total shares. This can mean two things: 1). the turn-over in lower half of the registry is higher than in the Top 19/20. Or, 2). there is a lot of churn going on by the big players.

Personally, look at the trading activity the past months (lots of capping, CXXT trades etc) combined with CS’s substantial holding notice (which shows they are buying and selling), I think there is a lot of churning going on in order to accumulate.

Don’t want to draw too much from this data but it provides some evidence of:

1.Shares moving from small to larger holders (i.e. consolidation of the overhang)

2.Large players using their market power to control the shareprice (although some might disagree).

And what this all means in terms of a potential takeover, or when they might let the price run, I don’t know. Still, I think this provides some interesting titbits of information

On a side note, I didn’t realise that Peters and Co are such large holders in CE1. As such, they are strongly incentivised to get top dollar for our Montney assets.