I agree that it's not bots - the stock is far too illiquid, the trades too infrequent and the parcels traded too large.
"To discount the shorters theory, the question begs how often do you see it done in your other stocks you follow ?"
Short positions are reported to ASIC with around a 3 to 4 day lag. It's public info. PAA is not being shorted. Further, with no shorting in play, there's no benefit to a regular SH to lower the SP unless they're trying to accumulate at a lower price. I have discounted this theory as well as, once the price is lowered, there's no obvious subsequent purchasing activity. The goal here appears to be the lowering of the SP itself.
I don't believe it's 'retail' in the true sense of the word. If an individual SH tried to pull what happened on the close yesterday (and other days) as part of a syndicate or not, their trading platform would/should be on to them quick smart threatening to suspend their account. IMO, the trades are being conducted via a broker with clear riding instructions from a client. This can also have the effect of obscuring who the beneficial holder is.
So who stands to benefit? I think there are two possibilities, one more likely than the other.
1) An entity who would like a lower 30 day / 7 day (short time period) average closing price (as opposed to VWAP) for the purpose of reducing the cost to participate in some sort of future issue. While possible, I believe this is highly unlikely.
2) Someone looking to fix a lower price point for a trasaction. This could be an off-market trade (trying to negotiate a lower price or minimise gain/maximise loss for tax purposes) or a corporate transaction. Either way, to be worth the effort, you need to be talking about a large number of shares 'trading hands'.
Looks to me like there's a shark in the water...
I'll look forward to your part two.
I have some more direct observations, but wouldn't post them here!
If you're interested in getting in touch, Mr Mouse has my details.
Cheers
Densy
PAA Price at posting:
10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held