I knew it - The new top 20 shareholders list of 27/8/14 compared to the last one of 25/10/13.
Directors and management all increased their stakes in AHZ, none selling but accumulating many from the staff incentive shares and substantial new buyers also accumulating or topping up, AF reduced 49M but holds a free carried interest of 12% still. Interestingly changes are:-
New Buyers
+52.6M MC Management
+13.6M ABN Amro
+12.4M Citicorp
+7.5M Amric
+6.5M JP Morgan
Top Up buyers
+6.5M Langcroft
+6M Farmakis
+1.9M Alocasia/Camelia
Sold down below top 20 or Out
-11M to -5.5M Forsyth Barr
-10.6M to -5.2M Tkocz
-9.1M to -2.6M Zaychan/linegar
-9M to -3.5M duske
-7M to - 1M fenton mark
So looks like the big US and Euro banks like AHZ as do many OZ millionaires and MC management and the millionaire accumulators continue to do buy in volume whilst other private millionaire holders have reduced or sold down. from 25 October 13 to today.
Lookin at the graphs Oct 13 to today, the triple top hit at 18.5c and these large volume sells came in Nov 18.5c 20M, Feb x 2 18.5c 40M & 20M, and Jun 14c of 15M so these top 20 sellers bought in around Aug 12 - Aug 13 to Oct 13 at 3c - 10c and sold out at 15c-18.5c -14c making on average around 200%-300%. Duske made around $1M profit on 1.5 year investment thats pretty good but he is no longer in top 20 but may have kept a small sum. Looks like some of these sellers sold at 14c on the spike in Jun also
and guess who was buyin their shares:= US Banks, Euro banks, farmakis, langcroft, alocasia, amric & MC, seems that MC bought all of AFs shares 49M sell to 52M buy, almost matches identically so must have been a planned effort. Alocasia is a top 12 holder in latin resources also. Langcroft seems to have a consulting connection to McRae Tech a prior large early seller at 2.5c. These new buyers are sophisticated & wealthy Investors, ABN/Citi/JP/MC hold many long positions in many Oz companies for over 20 years. But why these buyers - yep Citi, JP Morgan are large LTHs in FMG having some $60M - $100M shares in FMG.
This to me this is more research that backs my view to keep holding AHZ -Why have big US & Euro banks and millionaires kept buying into AHZ? Others who sold out got a great return on a large investment especially if they timed it at the 18.5c tops x 3 and bought at 5c like Tkocz/Duske however i doubt they picked this pattern exactly. Yet the large banks & MC took it all up and others are increasing their stakes not selling, Looks to me like Citi and JPM are ploughing their FMG dividends into AHZ, ie 15M x 10c = $1.5M = 12.4M shares in AHZ at 12.5c, predicting capital gains better in AHZ than FMG perhaps. Its a win win for the top 20, they have all made a small fortune and staff continue to buy and hold even without dividends. Very positive sign in my book.So who is right, tkocz/duske or camellia/amric/citibank/abn amro/JPM? Cant blame the former for takin profit but the latter are saying we think this has a lot more to go.
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