From advfn site and those mentioned below, hope it's of...

From advfn site and those mentioned below, hope it's of interest.


eurofox - 14 Dec'05 - 22:40 - 5124 of 5131


text from the motley fool reference above:


I really fail to see why people have been jumping up and down about the two hydrocarbon bearing sands found so far. It would be nice if the lower one was potentially commercial, but it is pretty irrelevant!!!

Go back to the RNSs:

23rd Nov:
Planned total well depth is 4,200 meters below sea level which is expected to be reached in approximately 30 days.

6th Dec [ie 13 days in]:
Drilling has been temporarily suspended at 3,536 m while a full suite of wireline logs, formation pressures, fluid samples and core samples are obtained.

13th Dec [20 days in, having taken about 5 days longer due to unanticipated wire logs]:
Since the Company's last report, the well has been drilled from ...3536m to the current depth of... 3674m.....preparations are
underway to drill ahead in a 6 inch hole to the planned total depth of around ....4237m....An intermediate logging programme was completed over the Upper Cretaceous interval, above [3536m].

So.....the logs don't include ANY of the last 701m planned.

The water depth at this location is 1,161m [source http://www.rocoil.com.au/Pages/ASX_Releases/2005_Releases/November-2005.html ].....so the distance from the top of the sub-sea surface to the bottom of the section that has been logged is at most* 2,375m [3536-1161].....and they still had 701m to go. [*In fact the depths are referenced to the rig rotary table....so it'll be perhaps 20m [??] less still!]. So.......they are no more than 77% [2375/(2375+701)] of the way to total target depth from the sub-sea surface......

Page 19 of the Dana AGM presentation illustrates the Faucon target, butting up against the salt diapir. There is no scale on the illustration, but the entire section shown is sub-surface [ie rock, not water]. The top of the Faucon target is shown 7cm down from the top of the illustration and the depth of the Faucon target is about 1.7cm. Obviously they will be drilling with the aim of going through the whole of the Faucon target, plus some modest distance beyond.....so lets assume that they have a 15% margin of error or so [ie the actual TD is 2cm(scaled} down from the top of the Faucon prospect].....so if the well were shown on Page 19 it would extend 9.0cm from the top of the slide, of which the bottom 2.0cm would be the main target.

Accordingly, the main target is AT LEAST 78% [7/9] of the way to total target depth.....and probably rather further down since the top of the page 19 illustration is some distance below the sub-sea surface [so the 2cm of the target would be smaller than two-ninths of the total well length].

THEREFORE THEY HADN'T EVEN REACHED THE TOP OF THE TARGET WHEN THEY RAN THE LOGS!

And then we move on to the Hardman comment about the CSEMI:
http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9615365
....which talks about a resistive layer at the target depth

By TD, of course, they don't mean the TD of the well.....they mean the top of the main target sands.....the bits that haven't yet been reached!


In fact, it is interesting to sit with Page 19 and see where they must have reached the interval they tested. From .....
Initial interpretation of the data collected indicates
the presence of two hydrocarbon bearing sandstones, which are some 500 feet
apart. The lower sandstone has a gross thickness of approximately 131 feet of
which the upper 33 feet contains a hydrocarbon which, based on the data
available so far, appears to be a light oil or a liquids rich gas-condensate.
The upper sandstone is 13 feet thick
....it seems to me highly likely that these are the thin layers shown to the right of the word "Faucon" on page 19 [for those who have it available].....and if that is the case then [guessing somewhat] the top of the main Faucon target is about 200 metres below the lower of these two sandstones and the target zone itself is about 400m thick!!! (and mainly potential pay, if we believe the colouring on the chart)

Now comes the interesting bit. Since running the logs, they have drilled a further 138 metres [from this morning's RNS]....and there have been indications of increasing pressure. If my guesstimates are roughly right, they are some 50-100m above the main target and and preparations are underway to drill ahead

Accordingly, I think it is very likely indeed that we will get some form of announcement prior to next Tuesday - because they will surely be in the main target zone in the next couple of days and [if the minor shows higher up caused them to stop and test] I suspect they'll all be getting very excited!!

....they may not be the only ones!!!! ;-)

emptyend