top 5 stocks 2011 revisited

I thought I would revisit the Top 5 stock picks for 2011 and see how good the H/C tipsters are going since we are almost 6 months from the date first recorded.

Thanks to erichmj here is the list and the number of times chosen from 3/01/11

l have also added the open price at 04/01/11 next to each stock

The High price reached during the last 6 months

The low Price reached during the last 6 months

And the closing price as from this weekend 17/06/2011

A brief summary of the list

During the past 6 Months 17 stocks out of 74 or (23%) are now trading higher than the start of the year.
During the past 6 months 57 stocks or out of 74 (77%) are now trading lower than the start of the year.
During the past 6 months 12 stocks out of 74 (16%) had doubled but are now trading lower.

There are 2 stocks PCL 044 - 097 and AYN .044-.093 (2.7%) which still are double their price of 6 months ago.
The top ten stock picks below are all trading lower today than they were 6 months ago
The Highest return was SSN .073 � 23 cents with a 230% gain within 6 months



Stocks counts open H/Price Low Close

CCC 37 075 095 042 042
SDL 31 62 62 33 35
ADO 28 093 10.5 071 0073
AVB 28 18 19 091 096
PEK 19 62 96 43.5 44
MNM 17 25 25 099 099
LEG 15 074 074 030 031
LYC 15 2.30 2.70 1.84 1.84
PRR 14 22.5 36 20 27.5
MNC 14 41.5 47 28.5 29
PEN 13 066 15.5 056 068
MCO 13 46.5 46.5 25 27
HOG 13 40 55 31 31
SSN 13 073 23 12.5 13
TIS 12 70 73 46 48
CEO 12 031 086 023 058
DEG 10 062 072 037 034
BCC 9 056 13 077 086
SVL 9 24 41 22.5 22.5
NWE 9 043 08 042 046
EQX 9 3.58 3.80 2.08 2.18
CAP 8 82 82 35.5 36
ARM 8 40 40 14.5 15
MYG 8 18.5 20 098 099
RHM 8 38 68 38 43
SBL 8 032 046 021 019
OBJ 7 023 03 019 021
GOR 7 40 82 42 47
SUR 7 083 11 021 023
BLR 7 058 091 026 026
UNX 7 81 81 32 41
CDY 7 032 047 025 025
PDY 6 023 04 013 015
CCU 6 67 1.10 66 71.5
FAR 6 082 17 089 11
PCL 6 044 10 062 9.7
PNX 6 39 39 10 10
EVG 6 13 22 11 15.5
FML 6 056 10.5 065 077
GNI 6 036 043 026 028
PSF 6 17 29 08 093
GDO 5 32 51 33 50.5
LOM 5 04 054 031 033
NTU 5 40.5 1.00 47 57.5
AKM 5 47.5 1.08 57.5 58
CKK 5 18 22.5 12 12
TRY 5 4.10 4.10 3.42 3.49
BIT 5 11 14.5 09 098
NEU 5 016 024 014 017
NGE 5 15 18 11 12
PIR 5 63 95 35.5 52
QMN 5 15 16 077 079
RXL 5 058 069 034 034
ORD 5 05 12.5 042 082
BYR 5 47.5 47.5 061 061
OVR 5 24 33 15 15
AYN 5 044 13 045 093



From a general observation from the list above it can be determined that when most stocks were picked or mentioned they were already in an Uptrend, trending above the 120 SMA.
Moreover most of the stocks had already been in an uptrend for an average of 3.5 months this indicates most tipsters on H/C were choosing stocks which were already trading at or near the highs for that stock resulting in 77 % or 3 out of 4 stocks trading lower after 6 months than when first picked at the beginning of January.

Both PCL, AYN which have doubled and maintained their rise in price were slightly or just above the 120 SMA when first picked and have ballooned way above the 120 day as the trend got stronger.

SSN had just managed to cross above the 120 SMA in January to commence a nice run up over the following 3-4 months

IN CONCLUSION ..
based on the above information it would seem that most of the stocks chosen by HC members were already in an uptrend which is good and is the correct method but the trend had started about 3 - 4 months earlier and most of the big gains in the stock were already gone indicating that most on H/C were choosing their stocks towards the end of the trend .which most likely you could extrapolate the data into real life trading situations.

WHY are the results so poor ?
IMO distribution or offloading of shares were taking place both by the stock promoters, insiders, brokers, analysts and others in this industry with the aid and promotion of being discussed or talked about consistently on H/C.

For further confirmation of distribution to the small time traders/investors just click on the most discussed stocks for Ex (Todays statistics) at the bottom right hand side to see how 90 % of the 20 or so stocks are all trading below their 120 SMA which indicates they are in a downtrend this is a common pattern week after week, indicating distribution into hotly discussed stocks on H/C.


The following are 10 rules from THE DEADLY ART OF STOCK MANIPULATION....
which IMO are most definitely being used on this forum on a daily basis. Some classic hooks which are consistently being repeated are

Small newspaper editorials covering a specific small cap stock giving an exclusive or an upbeat report of the stock and its future, this type of newspaper article is always definitely mentioned on H/C with following positive support from other posters adding further bullishness and credence to the small newspaper article.

Some obscure Small time broker report claiming the SP should be 50 % higher than the current price, or even posters claiming to have contacted Management and received a specific timeline or exact date for a future event, as the SP in the small cap stock is going down more of these type of reporting events and claims occur .

A flood of new posters start to begin new threads claiming to have spoken with management or having a source who are experts in the field of the particular stock.

And one for the TAs out there Small amount of shares going through at the EOD to make the Charts appear more bullish or bearish especially active on Fridays or when the SP is near support or resistance levels.

All these classic hooks are going on day after day while the SP is going down again massive distribution into the market.

Think about the stocks mentioned above or even your own stocks and how many of the rules below are currently being used on your stock �..

"RULE NUMBER ONE: ALL SHARP PRICE MOVEMENTS -- WHETHER UP OR DOWN -- ARE THE RESULT OF ONE OR MORE (USUALLY A GROUP OF) PROFESSIONALS MANIPULATING THE SHARE PRICE."

"RULE NUMBER TWO: IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP) HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN."

"RULE NUMBER THREE: AS SOON AS THE MARKET MANIPULATOR HAS COMPLETED HIS DISTRIBUTION (DUMPING) OF SHARES, HE WILL START A BAD NEWS OR NO NEWS CAMPAIGN."

"RULE NUMBER FOUR: ANY STOCK THAT TRADES HUGE VOLUME AT HIGHER PRICES SIGNALS THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE."

"RULE NUMBER FIVE: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL ALWAYS TRY TO GET YOU TO BUY AT THE HIGHEST, AND SELL AT THE LOWEST PRICE POSSIBLE."

"RULE NUMBER SIX: IF THIS IS A REAL DEAL, THEN YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE THE LAST PERSON TO BE NOTIFIED OR WILL BE DRIVEN OUT AT THE LOWER PRICES."

"RULE NUMBER SEVEN: CONVERSELY, YOU WILL OFTEN BE THE LAST TO KNOW WHEN THIS DEAL SHOWS SIGNS OF FAILURE."

"RULE NUMBER EIGHT: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL COMPEL YOU INTO THE STOCK SO THAT YOU DRIVE UP ITS PRICE SHARES."

"RULE NUMBER NINE: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR IS WELL AWARE OF THE EMOTIONS YOU ARE EXPERIENCING DURING A RUN UP AND A COLLAPSE AND WILL PLAY YOUR EMOTIONS LIKE A PIANO."

"FINAL RULE: A NEW BATCH OF SUCKERS ARE BORN WITH EVERY NEW PLAY."