No, China's population is not estimated to be 2b, not even close - closer to 1.4b. And there is no way there will be $10m royalties per quarter from P&G. But looking at different ways to estimate the revenue is always a good thing. According to
this statistical website , there are 326m females in China in the 25-56 age range. How many of them can actually afford a SK-II or Olay product, remembering that the average wage in China is under A$14k annually and actually will buy it? 1%? That is 3.3m sales. Annually, using your 50c, this would be just A$1.65m in royalties to OBJ.
Another way you can try to look at the market is from P&G's viewpoint. From their FY17 accounts, they have total revenue of US$65.1b. In their segment reporting they state that their "Skin and Personal Care" products is 8% of their revenue, worldwide. It doesn't break this down geographically, although it does give a total revenue for each region (including Greater China), but because of the vast range of P&G's products, this number is not very helpful to us.
The Skin and Personal Care for P&G includes Antiperspirant and Deodorant, Personal Cleansing, and Skin Care. The major brands are Olay, Old Spice, Safeguard and SK-II.
So, 8% of US$65.1b = US$5.2b
That is about A$6.8b. Remember this is
worldwide revenue
across all brands in this particular P&G product segment.
You can come to your own conclusions as to at to what percentage of this A$6.8b worldwide market annually is OBJ related. 5% 10%?? Then reduce that to the "wholesale price" that the OBJ royalty is calculated on. If it was 5% (no reason I have chosen this, but it would be an optimistic figure in my view given the total is worldwide across all products in the segment) would mean revenue of A$340m, so wholesale of, say, A$170m. So OBJ revenue (@2.5%) would be A$4.3m in annual revenue.
OBJ need actual revenue from other companies other than P&G just to justify the current share price, let alone a higher share price. DYOR.
(20min delay)