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CarlosG

709 Posts.

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02/10/20

15:56

Post #: 47815584
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Originally posted by CarlosG: ↑

Interesting dynamic in Daily Gross Short Sales reported
Mo 4,619,317
Tu 3,661,712
We 2,097,303
Th 1,124,618
with volumes well over 10m first three days and 8m yesterday
I would guess there are two possible explanation for shorts reducing volume:
1) they are running out of supply - this could be either positive or negative sign
2) they don't see any more of downside - this is positive
in second case there is still possibility price going lower but I would guess by no more than a dollar.
Another thing is as I wrote before top 20 institutions had about 75% of holdings and my guess the retail one have say 20%. So far, but it's very likely to change, only one fund came out with increase statement. it's a long shot but if we assume that out of 6.5% traded so far in this five days 5% were retails who wants out we will have 15% of retails left. I would wildly guess that at least half of these remaining retail holders are hard core and no way will sell. those who did sell so far probably sold it to someone who will not sell at lower price or even a little bit higher. So we have about 7-8% of possible offload. thing is shorts are now at somewhat 8%. they will need cover their positions at some point, to cover 8% with remaining and probably still reducing 7-8% would be interesting to watch especially if any positive signs will emerge.
Don't judge harshly this is just my wild imagination.

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interesting. Gross shorts on Monday was 4,619,317 net increase ~2,590,000 implies ~1,000,000 was covered? why?

A2M Price at posting: $13.93 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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